Sort of round robin blog today on topics in the weather worth watching and still pondering what will be in a few days off the coast of Cape Hatteras or down near Florida next week.
The search for the missing sailors from the Regatta by Dauphin Island goes on with very little mention in the news. TWC talks on it when they are not doing infomercial segments on security. Local news out of the area is talking about it more than they are problems far away in other places. For people who love to sail it's a big story and it bothers me as a weather person that they did not seem as prepared as they should be. In Alabama it's a huge, sad, heartbreaking story.
Nice link to watch the winds across the country is below:
Personally shows .07 mph (???) over me but I'm in the doldrums weather wise today. That will change in 4.8 days :)
It's been raining in Florida for days. South Florida especially has been under the water gun the whole week. Currently, it's not raining. But, people down there have felt like the rains came early this year and it's been flood like in some areas. My bigger concern is what will happen when the rainy season really does begin later in May? This was a bonus rainfall from the current weather set up and prevailing winds bringing everything in from the sultry, moist GOM across South Florida mixed with fronts that should not be there.
The always amazing WV Loop looks like this:
Currently the line of moisture that was hanging over FL
...is over Cuba...
it will be back................
If the sun is shining today...enjoy it.
Word is later next week the wild weather will return
Subtropical Development off Florida? Pre-Season Begins for 2015 Hurricane Season - NMB History Fulford By the Sea
Speculation in tropical development in late April is a lot like Land Booms in Florida in the 1920s. You're basically selling someone a whole lot of swamp land, but then again.. it is in Florida.
This beautiful monument was built for Fulford By The Sea.
That begat Fulford.
Fulford begat North Miami Beach
North Miami Beach begat NMB
(kind of land locked there but its still in Florida...)
I was the archivist for NMB at one time at the public library and here's a little tidbit they don't advertise in the travel brochures. They sold the "sea" part not that long ago considering modern history as they didn't want to pay for the mangroves on the beach. Those mangroves that were once known as Myakka... are not worthless land but Sunny Isles Beach. Long story and calls for it's own blog, but the city leaders of North Miami Beach did not have the foresight the early founders did when they actually....had a sea. But, hey when you are standing on 163rd Street looking west at sunset through the palms.. you can forget the crime and grime and know you are living a way better life than back in Cleveland in January. The notes of the board meeting where they dumped that beach sand back on Miami Dade County are priceless.... by the way ;)
So, why am I talking about swamp land and not a possible subtropical low forming off the coast of Florida that the models have latched onto and we are watching curiously? Because it's a lot like Florida Swamp Land.. before they cleared it and put up paradise. It's early, it's pre-game football (which I'd kill for right now personally) as it's not the real thing, but it's something. The right location, not really any real value or development. Too late to be a backdoor cold front, blizzard, Nor'easter and not really ready for the Hurricane season.
We've been watching it for days. But, since the European model latched onto it and has tried to close off the bubble that was lingering off the coast of the Space Coast... it is now prime time being sold by Jim Cantore and being covered by the TWC when they are not hawking their show on prospectors.
See... we've been watching. I've been waiting a bit to see what to say on it other than will be there and looking forward to any tropical rain or subtropical rain I can get.
Note it moves up along the coast from FL to the Carolinas.
See we've been discussing the possibilities for a while.
The GFS and ye olde CMC were showing this possibility, but when the European latched on and became suggestive it went prime time. So, what will happen? A lot of rain probably, but then South Florida has been in the cross hairs of rain for the last several days.
“It’s pretty much raining throughout South Florida,” said CBS4 meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez"
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article19850547.html#storylink=cpy
Gonzalez is well known in Miami area, rated as the best meteorologist in 2013 by the New Times. Prime time Miami ... a walking illustration of brains and beauty and someone living in paradise... even if it does rain a lot in paradise this time of year.
So, keep watching the tropics. We are getting closer day by day and no matter what anyone says the pattern is set. The main mitigating factor for now is increased shear in the GOM and the El Nino that is present. As I said I will add more to my discussion on the upcoming 2015 Hurricane Season soon but for now there is something on the map worth discussing more than forecasts for a season that is 32 days away. A small tropical system can blow up in the GOM or anywhere near the bathtub gin water of the Florida Straits and create tropical stress in a city already flooded from April rainfall. And, usually when Miami has this set up we have more to worry on systems coming up from the SW than we have from long trackers moving WNW from Cape Verde.
Personally I'm still watching the GOM as well...
Ps... I'll be back to discuss this possible subtropical low as well as the coming 2015 Hurricane Season... as well as highlighting women in meteorology who inspire us all. Below is the music video that used to do me in when I lived in LA... missing Miami.
Extra Credit Ps ;)
Brad Panovitch is so great he makes me wish I lived in Charlotte, NC and that town is pretty far inland for me, but it might be worth it to make the move. He's good. He's also good to watch to see what is moving this way when I am in Raleigh. His cover picture on Facebook reminds me of Miami and the way the clouds look on any given day. Check out his Facebook to enjoy his broadcasts he puts there of the forecast and his excellent, easy to understand explanations of local weather.
2015 Hurricane Season. Remember Cabbage Patch Dolls? Gladys Rubio... an awesome story there..
The water is HOT off the coast of Florida!
The Gulf of Mexico is HOT!
Florida Straits are HOT!
That's a lot of hot, hot, hot water!!!
This worries me going into the 2015 Hurricane Season.
Yes, the "experts" are predicting a slow or below average season.
Yet like real estate in Florida it's all about location ...
A fast developing storm just off shore would be a problem if this set up continues.
Remember back in the 1980s when the CABBAGE PATCH DOLLS were the best present ever?
Each doll was different and you could make each doll your own ;)
Hurricane Seasons are a lot like Cabbage Patch Dolls if you ask me.
They look similar ( I mean come on look at the eyes on those dolls as well as hurricanes) but each season is just a little different.
We as meteorologists do this holy grail sort of search for "the analog years" as if finding just the right year will let us see deeper into our crystal ball of climatology to see what is in store for this coming year.
Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach put out there early forecast a few weeks ago and everyone has been pouring over the data ever since trying to give their own thoughts and spin on what is basically the same story.
It's forecast by many to be a "quiet" season, quiet being relative to where you be living and where a random hurricane may be making landfall.
Take 1957 which is one of the analog years in the report.
Slow season indeed. Well, slow unless you lived in Texas and parts of Louisiana and met Audrey up close and personal. The fine people of Texas will never forget Audrey, the first hurricane of the 1957 Hurricane Season. Note Audrey caught a trof and moved all the way north into Canada creating weather where ever she went...
"worst storm in Louisianna in 100 years"
Some great personal accounts on Youtube if you want to look.
Old timers telling the story of Audrey in 1957.
A "quiet year in the tropics"
Read the discussion this morning and see how the set up of oozy, warm water...
... keeps flowing up towards the coast of LA & TX.
We also have late season fronts active... hmnnn....
A brief look at the details of the Dr. Bill & Phil Report..
Oddly I've been meaning to mention 1987 as a year to remember.
A weak, but memorable, Hurricane Floyd moved UP the Keys into the Miami area.
Note that earlier in the year there was a smaller storm
with a similar path
May of 1987
Note the pattern.... was set early in May.
The year as a whole is below
What is different?
Cold water in the Atlantic & the Caribbean will make it difficult for any tropical waves to really get going. But, if they continue weakly westward and find their way up into the Gulf of Mexico, they could ignite rapidly on any given day into a fast developing tropical storm or hurricane.
So... let's look again at 1987 edited a bit by me and see the areas of concern. As I said we had wild fires in 1986..and into 1987. The child who had asthma in 86 continued to have asthma in 87 and while staying at my mother's house he hurt himself jumping up and down on the sofa bed. We kept telling him to stop... Anyway, my brother and I drove down Alton Road to South Beach to his doctor who gave him stitches. We basically drove through the wort of "Hurricane Floyd" which really seemed more like a tropical storm but.. it was a good, strong taste of tropical weather.
Let's look at 1957 a year that is also in the analog years.
I edited it again with a blue line....
If you don't look at Carrie that formed off the coast of Africa then you have the same area that is active as was the case in 1957. Close in... Florida & Gulf of Mexico.
1991... another active year in that same grid.
Again a track NE across Florida & the Keys
Again every year is different.
That is the point.
Crown Weather has a map up that shows their concern areas.
Again, the area in the GOM & FL are a concern.
Crown Weather has great discussion on this set up as other possible problems with the coming Hurricane Season.
It's a good read, especially if the Colorado State report is a hard read. My suggestion is to read them both, read them all and continue to read my blog as well. There are so many factors involved in trying to see the future and a forecast is ... a forecast.
Forecast = Prediction
It's based on previous data.
Example. If you ride Amtrak long enough you may be delayed with a problem or an accident. I ride Amtrak, I know, but I still ride Amtrak. I've lived on Miami Beach 3 blocks from the ocean, I'd do it again if I could afford to... hurricanes happen eventually. Hurricanes often happen in SLOW years like 1992 (not an analog year but could be) when Andrew slammed Westbound into Miami in an El Nino slow year.
1992 .. NOT a busy year.
Big memorable storm.
1921... NOT a busy year.
Tell that to Tampa.
Curious what Jim Williams has to say on the 2015 season.
No 2 meteorologists are alike...
Like 7 men and an elephant they all study a different part of the problem.
Jim tries to forecast WHERE they will hit.
Where vs How Many . . .
34 Days to Go til the start of the 2015 Hurricane Season
check out the ticker... ticking down...
And, check out part 2 of this discussion will include the ever popular El Nino (also no 2 are exactly a like) and other features in the tropical Atlantic that often affect the Hurricane Season. Note, on May 15th, 2015 the EPAC Hurricane Season begins and activity in that basin affects the Atlantic Basin. I'll also be discussing current synoptics that highlight where the weather has been happening and patterns that may affect this coming season. An example being the nonstop flow of Gulf Moisture into LA and TX, in fact they have had tornado warnings and severe weather often. Lastly, I'll be talking about the record breaking heat in the Miami area this year. Yesterday's almost triple digit weather broke records that have held since 1971. That's a long time ago.
Note today it's sort of active in the East Pacific..
Looks like a busy season for the EPAC.
As for my woman in meteorology today Gladys Rubio has a life that is worthy of a movie about.
"Growing up in Camaguey, Cuba, her longtime
interest in meteorology can be traced to 1963,
when Hurricane Flora devastated eastern Cuba.
She remembers this as the first time she was in
the eye of a hurricane. Having had no idea what
was happening during this event, she was
immediately fascinated by tropical meteorology.
Rubio pursued her interest in tropical
meteorology after having moved to Havana City
to attend the University of Havana, where she
received both her B.S. and M.S. degrees. Since
then, she has received significant experience in
forecasting in both the private and government
Rubio began her career at Cuba's
Meteorological Service, where she was a
member of the technical staff and a shift
supervisor for 20 years. She also worked for 10
years at the Cuban Institute, providing daily
weather reports on television and radio. One of
the most vivid memories of her career was at the
Cuban Institute, when she worked 36 hours
while Hurricane Kate made landfall. Once
again, she was in the eye of the storm."
Read on. How did she end up working at the NHC in Miami?? What a story...
Prepare for the busiest season.
Prepare as if your town is the town ....
....is where that rare 2015 Hurricane makes landfall!
Ps. Doesn't look to be a year like 1995 or 1996 or 2005, but no one wants to bet the proverbial farm that there will not be any dangerous, landfalling hurricanes this coming year. Would you?
Wild Fires in South Florida. Memories of 1986 Fires in the Glades & Miami Beach.
Let's go back in time to 1986. There were fires in the glades that year and the smoke spread across a good part of South Florida..........including and all the way to Miami Beach. When the wind shifted out of the west even the beaches could feel the taste of the fires in the back of our throats.
Usually smoke from wild fires are a problem for people who live out in Homestead, Kendall or Westchester what we call South Dade or SW Miami. Neighborhoods that were built over land that only existed after early developers drained the Everglades by blowing up the rapids on the Miami River. At the time.. it seemed like a good idea....
What's that you say? You didn't know there were rapids on the Miami River once upon a time?
The picture above is from the always wonderful site below:
The "rapids" which were at that time a pretty picnic site for young lovers to sit and watch the water race over the rapids around 27th Avenue and the Miami River. That's not really far from downtown Miami and it allows you to understand how much of the Everglades were drained and how we paved paradise and put up a lot of parking lots...as the song goes.
Most of Miami at the turn of the previous century was just small communities along the river built up on a small ridge of land between the glades and the mangroves near the mouth of the Miami River.
A good read of the history of the area from some of the best Miami historians is below:
A nice link with more recent historic pictures of the Miami River.
Basically people went out to watch the dynamiting venture and saw the water rushing down the river. Upstream the land was suddenly exposed, dark, murky, rich soil that had never really seen the light of day was now available for orange groves and the eventual suburban subdivisions.
Allapattah was one of those early distant suburbs..on the other side of the river but still within view practically of downtown. After the rapids were dynamited the whole area to the west of there was fair game for whoever had the money to invest in land. Next time you fly into MIA airport... remember it was once covered with a river of grass... commonly known as The Everglades.
Here's a beautiful song by one of my old time friends from way back when ;)
Incredible song... Lanny Smith aka "Earthman"
The truth is there were wild fires in the Everglades before man began recording the history of South Florida. Lightning from the sky, from May storms and the monsoons that hit Miami every year in May (and sometimes April) ignite fires that are part of the process of keeping the whole ecosystem going. Unfortunately, now days meaning the last 100 years or so, homes, highways and people are thrown into the mix. The fires create health problems, traffic jams and incredible sunsets. Sometimes they get too close to subdivisions that have come too close to the Everglades and need to be monitored, put out and then usually the rains come. This year is one of those years.
Back in 1986 I had a small baby who had shown a few signs of possibly having asthmatic problems. His older brother had asthma, an older sister had a bit of asthma and I have asthma...so this was not that surprising. He was young, not yet a year old and I kept hoping against hope it was just a cold or a runny nose. I was at work and his sitter called me saying he was having problems breathing. She was just a few blocks away but when I left the school where I taught I could smell the smoke as if it was just across the Bay not miles away in the Glades. The sky had a dark, gray almost brownish orange look to it. I took the baby to the doctor whose office was on Arthur Godfrey Drive a few miles away and he sent me to Mt. Sinai a block or two away for him to have better breathing treatments than he could get at his office. "Fire season" he told me... "riles up all the allergies, every kid in town with asthma is sick today." Official diagnosis.. asthma. Nope, I'll never forget seeing that much smoke on Miami Beach in the air driving down Alton Road. It looked as if the golf course was on fire... It was I may add a pretty sunset from his room overlooking Biscayne Bay facing the west ...and the setting sun. It reminded me of how beautiful the sunsets were in California on a smoggy day.
It was a slow season in ways in 1986. We were coming off of an El Nino. The fires were bad. Andrew in 1986 stayed far from South Florida. Fires however plagued us in the mid 1980s. And, then things change as they always do. The 1980s were strong years for Gulf Coast storms as hurricanes moved north through the Gulf of Mexico towards landfall and Miami built like we would never see a landfalling hurricane again. When I moved back to Miami in 1985 the joke was that if you stood too long on Dixie Highway they would start building a condo on top of you.
1986 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
I'm not saying this year will be a year like 1986. I'm just saying I'm remembering and I'm watching things evolve. The Gulf of Mexico is HOT HOT HOT. The waters off of South Florida are hot. Storms keep forming and moving north in a similar pattern almost daily and I don't see that ending any time soon...though there may be a brief respite for a week or two.
Today the storms are more of the twisted kind as chasers get into place for tomorrow in Texas, Oklahoma and all those tornadic ports of call.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Stay tuned, time keeps slipping closer and closer to Hurricane Season.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
Ps... yes they did it in Hawaii too... and a lot of other places including the beautiful beach cities of LA ;)
El Nino? Severe Wxr in South 6 Weeks Before Hurricane Season. WRAL Aimee Wilmoth
Battle lines being drawn between a winter that does not want to go away and Gulf of Mexico heat streaming north feeding a giant cold front moving eastbound out to sea. The battle ground for today is in North Carolina and parts of the Appalachian Mountains and moves on towards the North East and Long Island in time.
See the cartoon like map that the NWS puts out for short term weather. Big system.
Looks so innocent when you look at it this way.
Lines and colors,
Greens and blues,
Arrows and isobars,
Just another Spring like day in the Eastern Half of the Nation. Note...the Eastern Half of the Nation has been in play since before last winter. Note moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been pumping up into the Deep South for months now. The map looks kind of easy and innocent. A bit of rain for parts of the South and the Mid-Atlantic moving up into New England.
Don't they look so innocent? An interesting time, not so innocent but it had a playful feel to it. Good song. Says a lot, yet we view the song through the framework of what it means to us and our messy minds. It was a political song. To me it's deeply personal and extremely meteorological.
Funny you look back at Middle School and remember being annoyed to death by some boy who pulled your hair or made fun of your frizzy curls when your hair wasn't limpy or wimpy and yet you can't remember the name of your math teacher or who sat next to you. You remember a note passed around the class or the taste of hot cinnamon toothpicks burning your tongue before you popped Sweet Tarts into your mouth. And, you remember which class you were in when the teacher was late and boys ran across the street to get sweet, spicy treats for the girls who sat neatly in short skirts awaiting their return. Times like that burn a memory into your brain.
And, I wonder why we never had weather classes in school as in retrospect from my perspective weather is way more important than learning the lyrics to "That's Amore" in music class.
It's all a matter of perspective I suppose.
Let's take El Nino for example.
The Hurricane Season is coming up in a little more than a month, yet everyone wants to make predictions on the El Nino instead. I've heard everything from "this is the biggest, baddest El Nino since.... " to "other indicators show that it may be moderating and we are flipping over to Neutral" but hey that's the way it goes with weather people. No two can ever agree on anything even when in theory they do agree, yet it's all about the details. Whether you are discussing the weather, global warming or El Nino no two meteorologists agree completely. End result is the same, but some variable in the mathematical equation differs and the rate vs the height vs the depth and size and ... let's change the analog years to better ones and redo the formula...
I like the maps on www.spaghettimodels.com as I can pick and choose from a meteorological buffett of what food I'm interested in on any particular day.
I'm worrying on the weather in my part of the world.
I'm curious on the latent heat in the GOM for down the line.
Today I'm in Raleigh.
Stay tuned, won't be here in a few weeks.
Always on the move like the weather.
A woman died when a tree fell on her home in Georgia yesterday.
Storms. Spring Storms Gone Wrong.
Most people will never hear about this story today.
To her family and the children she taught it is their story.
Pine Pollen Storm in Raleigh . . and across the South....wherever there be pines...Liz Horton & West Miami's Marco Rubio
Ever have that sense of Deja Vu like you've been here before and you keep forgetting how bad it is until it happens again and again.
Let's look up close at this nice anonymous car that was parked in the Trader Joes parking lot yesterday.
That's not a Pollock painting that's Pine Pollen up close and way too personal.
"Mural on Indian Red Ground”
People ask me how I live in Miami when they have so many hurricanes. Let me explain it to you like this: We don't ALWAYS have hurricanes! We go years and years and decades without a hurricane. We went from 1965 to 1992 without having a real hurricane. There are kids who were born 9 months after Hurricane Betsy who grew up, went to school in West Miami and graduated from Coral Park Sr. High and went off to University of Florida and moved away from South Florida and never, ever went through one hurricane. They look back from their home in Seattle or San Diego and wonder what it would have been like to go through a hurricane.
Every year in North Carolina whether there is a hurricane or a snow storm we suffer through Pine Pollen. Yes, Pine Pollen is an entity, it's a noun and it does get capitalized on my blog.The same pollen that works it's way up from somewhere near the Florida Georgia Line and meanders through Georgia, South Carolina and Fayetteville as the weather warms up the little yellow pine devils and they finally pops in NC. Watch out Virginia. it's coming your way sooner rather than later.
You see we have these things here called Pine Trees and they are everywhere and every year like clock work sometime in late March or early April the pine pollen rains down upon Raleigh with more consistency than any Atlantic Hurricane that may or may not hit land in Florida. Whether it's El Nino or La Nina or their cousin No Nino... there is Pine Pollen. And, every year we remember it but we don't really remember how bad it it until it falls. Every year since I have spent part of my life here I've heard old timers say "I don't remember it ever being this bad...." and am pretty sure they have been saying that since way before global warming came along or the dreaded polar vortex.
As the song goes... I keep on forgetting to forget about you...or should it be remember you?
You see the problem down here is that... it never falls the same time exactly so you never know when to leave town and it never falls the same two years in a row. A lot depends on the rain and how much rain we have and how often. The more rain we get the more the skies clear up for an hour or two and yellow puddles form in the gutter like yellow pollen art.
I'm going to use pictures to tell the story from here on in...
NC beautiful....after the rain, early in the morning.
Later that day....
note small yellow spots on wind shield...
Still pretty but polluted by pollen ...
The infamous deck shot from Raleigh.
Usually seen covered in snow.........
That's yellow snow in Raleigh...
Pine Pollen coating everything..
You see lots of postcards showing Dogwood as the State Flower
It also shows itself every year around Easter & Passover
Sadly I'm watching from inside looking out...
As I'm staying as far away from the pollen as I can get..
And I wonder........
Does Big Pine Key have pollen too?
I may have to go north this time or just stay inside and hide :(
As for my women in meteorology post today I'm a little annoyed. It's harder than I thought it would be to post stories on women as it seems sometimes the men are covered more than the women. Or, the women are shown off more for their beautiful outfits vs the boring suits that the men wear.
Remember the story of the news anchor in Australia who wore the same suit for a year and no one seemed to notice...
It's true and interesting. Hilary Clinton is running for President and the biggest story is how she will be packaged. Seems women don't always like how she wears her hair or her make up. Hmnnn. I'd worry more on other things. Marco Rubio is announcing his candicacy for President today at the Freedom Tower in Miami and no one is wondering what suit he will wear. Personally I'm excited. I grew up in West Miami not far from where he did and I have a lot of respect for him on many levels.
This morning I was watching the woman meteorologist on Channel 11 talk on the weather for the day. She is on air every 10 minutes on News on the Ones and yet...........it's hard to find information on her. Sort of bugs me. Personally when weather is breaking I like watching Gary Stephenson, he does a great job when live when there is severe weather nearby or a random hurricane off the coast. Mind you I say "random" as hurricanes don't happen as often as Pine Pollen Storms!
http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triangle-sandhills/weather.html ??? Why isn't the woman featured I wonder, sort of odd... I know she's on as she's on air talking about the weather...
One thing I love about Raleigh is local weather every 10 minutes..
...in case you miss the more boring coverage on TWC
TWC meaning The Weather Channel
Time Warner Cable
Luckily we have many excellent weather forecasters in Raleigh. On Channel 11 the ABC affiliate here has Liz Horton doing a great job on air covering the weather.
She studied at Mississippi State University..
She does a great job and should be an inspiration for..
...any girl who has a passion for weather
...and wonders what it would be like to study meteorology!
Ps Very old school version of "In the Pines" by Bill Monroe
Michael from Mountains... the Judy Collins song I always think of when I see the yellow pine pollen art in the puddles
"there's oil in the puddles in taffeta patterns that run down the drain in colored arrangements that Michael will change with a stick that he found..."
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm