Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, May 31, 2014

Start of the Hurricane Season. 1st Named Storm Arthur. Is Boris Forming in the EPAC?

This is how the world looks on June 1st, 2014
1st Day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Where do we watch on June 1st for tropical development?
Where will Arthur form?

You don't need a degree in meteorology to recognize that there is a lot of tropical moisture in the Eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean around the Yucatan. If you didn't know anything about meteorology you would think that some storm had made landfall ON Central America and was raining itself out. If you know a little about tropical meteorology you would say there is a "monsoon trough" set up in the tropics.

If you go to the NHC you will find out that there is a red circle in the EPAC with a 60% chance of developing. 

Now, whether this gets a the name Boris or just stays a weak tropical mess there is one thing that is a "for sure" and that is this will cause misery for parts of Central America.

 A low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southeast of
Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become better defined during the day.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
development...and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next few days while the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Again... let me repeat this... this system has the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides as it is moving North towards Central America not west out towards open ocean. 

Then as it continues moving north it's moisture will ooze it's way into the Atlantic Basin and up the ante for an early Tropical Storm named Arthur. We are still only discussing "Arthur" by way of modeling packages that regularly spit out some weak, lopsided storm in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. That would be typical of most A storms in early June. Rarely do you have a really well formed cyclone in that part of the world. It happens... 

Alma in 1966 was a Category 3 Hurricane that is one for the record books. Different storm, different year, different set of conditions. Just pointing it out that it can happen... Just most likely not this year. So for all of you people reading tomorrow about a possible Tropical Storm in the GOM.. .threatening some part of the Gulf Coast... breathe... make a plan for this coming year and go shopping in Florida and enjoy the Tax Free Holiday for Hurricane Supplies. Check the list before you assume...

Track of Alma 1966

Current GFS Ensemble Model for 93E


So, the question is ... does something cross over? Does it rain itself out over Central America? Does something new form? Keep watching... weather is fluid and it happens when it happens. Best reality show on Planet Earth...

So this is in reality where are tonight.

You tell me what is going to form and where its going to form? It's like pin the head on the tropical donkey if you ask me...

Honestly they are two different areas of moisture and it could be that the one in the EPAC is being pulled north by the stronger, larger area on the Atlantic/Carib side caught up in the low level flow ..

We'll know soon enough..

State of my tropics tonight is that we have something to look at and wonder upon on the 1st Day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

And, I'll be here sharing my thoughts with you and on Twitter @Bobbistorm and following all the sites on as well as a few other sites I love.

Follow along, but if you live in Florida... go shopping tomorrow for hurricane supplies and save money on the taxes. It's a nice holiday and few states are offering it so if you live in Florida.. take advantage.

Whether Arthur forms from this convection in the Caribbean or if it doesn't something will form and you will be happy you saved money rather than impulse shopping in a crowded Walmart somewhere in Hurricane Country. And... just because El Nino may be forming later in the season does not mean we will have a quiet June or July.

Only Time Will Tell... models make predictions and they change in real time. Only after the storm passes do we really know what happened.

My job and the job of may of us online is to give you the best information from a variety of sources that help you best understand the possibilities that may be fall you. And, as always the official line is the NHC and they do a great job of putting out information as does the NWS ...

According to their blog... the big day is here ...

The names for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season are listed below. May none of them seriously rock your world too hard this coming season. My best advice: Stay Prepared.

1992 was an El Nino... there were only 6 was Andrew. I've said it here over and over again.

My friend said it well tonight on Twitter. Remember it the next time some one tells you not to worry they heard an El Nino was forming and it would "kill the hurricane season off" .. Remind them of 1992. You see us Miami kids do not forget the reality that in any given year you can host a hurricane that came to dinner.. even if you didn't invite it to the party...

In a very slow hurricane season.. it only takes one.. it is so, so, so true!

Besos Bobbi
Ps.. I will update tomorrow morning

Friday, May 30, 2014

Tropics Today 2 Days Til Hurricane Season. Rainy Season Begins in Miami. New Blog from NHC

Link to loop:

First some talk on the state of the Tropics and then some talk about new features being put out by the NHC to keep everyone informed

There has been a lot of talk about something possibly forming in the Caribbean in a week or so. This talk started a week or so the timing has already been pushed off as models aren't consistent. Let's look at two sites that are highlighted on to better understand the "why" of this question.

First off there is a green window for tropical possibilities this coming week. Note it evaporates the following week so timing here is everything.

Next, let's look at the actual conditions along side the "tropical development areas"

Not overly friendly and if anything were to develop it would in theory be as close to the coast of the Yucatan as it could get. Shear is an issue in that area and would inhibit anything from forming too rapidly. It would not inhibit "tropical rain" from forming and moving north, but there is a big difference between "rain" and a closed tropical system.

This is a good illustration of why this time of year things form in the Bay of Campeche.

The tropical waves are running low still this time of year and more likely to crash into South America. The remnants of those waves work their way west in the Southern Caribbean and can pump up the moisture closer to the Yucatan. Again, it takes many ingredients to come together at the right time for an actual storm or depression to form.

Click on this link and you will see that if anything does form around the Yucatan it would head north quickly towards the Central GOM. That could change as weather changes in real time even though the pattern is set by climatology.

So... somewhere between all the whispers and innuendo online there still isn't anything out there today. What is not innuendo is the discussion out the NHC which you can read yourself daily. I've been reading it for years. When I was really young I would take a hurricane map and mark off the waves with a pencil to try and get a real time feel for the intricate discussion. Over time it becomes easy to understand. Or you can just read my blog as well as other sources online, watch your local forecasters on TV and follow along on your favorite tropical weather website.

Some discussion on that blog of rain on the north coast of Cuba that looks more ominous than it is.. 


For the Cup of Joe fans.. Bastardi is tweeting about the possibilities.

Seems a lot of us couldn't sleep last night. Actually, I fell asleep around 9PM on the couch with my previously mentioned migraine. Woke up, went to bed and then woke up again about 3:30 AM. Gave up the ghost of sleeping around 4AM and smiled when I read some tweets online.

As I said... old Miami hobby...watching thunderstorms any time of the day or night. Great visual image there by Greg Nordstrom. Been there and done it many times. Ironically I did read Joe Bastardi's post as I was having trouble falling back asleep. With dreams of Ione, Hazel, Connie and Donna dancing in my head along with other 1950s hurricanes I got up, took a shower and sat down to read a bit. Migraine gone for now. I rarely get migraines, sinus headaches yes, migraines no. Maybe it was some perfume I tried on earlier at the Mall? Who knows. But one thing I do know is Joe Bastardi knows Hurricane History. 

I also know that according to some sources the Miami Monsoons AKA Rainy Season has begun. Some friends have voted and voiced their opinions. As for me I'll quote the Carpenters: "It's only just begun..."

These are all voices I trust so... it seems the Rainy Season got it's groove on just under the wire in time to still say it started in May.

Feel free to give me your opinion @Bobbistorm on just when you thought the rainy season started in South Florida... your thoughts are always welcome. Social media is about sharing and sharing weather stories is something most weather people love to do :)

Another voice I listen to is any voice that comes out of the NHC.  It seems they have joined the rest of us online and started an official blog. A wonderful idea. I've been following the HRD blog for years. Back when I used to print things out that I was reading I would print out things from the One Stop Shop site they ran with discussion on various recon information. Oh what a time it was ;) Anyway...check this blog out as well as the new blog being put out by the NHC below. (new blog by NHC) 

To know a blog is to get to know the author of the Blog. So let's take a look at Robbie Berg.

The infamous Miami - Raleigh connection rears its interesting head.

He worked as in Intern at WRAL under Greg Fishel. When I began commuting between Miami and Raleigh several years ago I asked the locals who they listen to and almost all swear by Fishel the way Miamians would wax poetic on Bryan Norcross.

"Berg: I was an intern at WRAL during my senior year at N.C. State and worked for Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel.
Read more at"

You may read the article in the link above, but if you are pressed for time this about says it all:

"Robbie Berg is a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He earned double bachelor’s degrees in meteorology and marine science from North Carolina State University in 2001, graduating as valedictorian with a perfect grade point average. Berg is responsible for forecasting and tracking tropical cyclones, issuing cyclone watches and warnings and conducting education and training for emergency managers, forecasters and the public. He lives in Doral, Fla., with his cats, Nimbus and Sandstorm.

Berg is a blend of the best in education. Connect the dots and you will see he has learned from some of the best in the world of meteorology. 

B.S. in of Science in Meteorology as well as a Bachelor of  Science in Marine Science from NC State.. 
Graduate work, University of  Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.
Working on a Masters in Communications from Johns Hopkins University. 
Student Intern at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

A voice most definitely worth listening to and you can bet I'll be reading his blog often.

And, that's it for the tropics this morning. The early bird has finally shut up and stopped it's incessant singing from his perch in the Dogwood tree my kitchen window. My husband is up and ready to go to start his day. Sunlight is peaking through the "natural area" behind our house that this Miami girl refers to as "the forest" and always thanks for reading and following my blog. 

Besos Bobbi
Ps Make a list and then go shopping.,0,6223916.story

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Dangers of Inland Flooding. TWC Throws a "Prep Party" Make a Plan Now...Hurricane Season Begins in 3 Days!

(if you can find a new Publix Hurricane Guide.. grab it and read it!!)

I asked a question a few days back and Phil Ferro from Channel 7 in Miami answered it.

Earliest rainy season start: May 18th.
Latest rainy season: June 3rd
According to the NWS the rainy season this in Miami began on May 26th.

That brings with it a new danger that people need to take seriously... Lightning Safety.

In reality in Miami it rains every afternoon this time of year around the time that children get out of school and you can go to any elementary school and see children racing towards their parent's cars. Or.. you can see children walking home in the rain... and the thunder. It's part of life in Miami. I know, because I grew up in Miami and spent more than half of my life there. The sky turns purple, dark, dark purple and lightning bolts slam into the ground just as you are about to leave school.. walk home... or wait outside for a ride. 

This picture is online at 
But it really does look like that and I have spent way too many days sitting by the Bay watching a line roll in.

I'm not saying it's the smartest thing to do .. but it's what Miami kids grow up doing..

You can be at Disney and they will stop all rides until the lightning threat is over. I got stuck in Nola a few months back while a line rolled through. Planes stop. Rides stop. Miami kids do not stop... for good or for bad,... we are as used to it as kids up north are of walking on ice or trudging through snow. In reality.. it's dangerous. Miami kids get a sense early on for how close a storm is and when they need to take cover.

I took this picture a few years back in North Miami Beach...waiting for my son to come home on the school bus.. 

Back in  August of 2008 I was paying a fortune for a bus service to take my kids from NMB to Miami Beach to the Day Camp. During rains related to Tropical Storm Fay the bus driver drove up on the lawn so that my son wouldn't have to walk through the flooded streets. I'm still grateful. Of course half the family was out side taking pictures and my daughter drove back from Orlando in a Tropical Storm... but still it was nice to have door to door service. 

A look back..

It floods in Miami often when it rains... it floods way worse on Miami Beach when it rains.

I miss Miami rain :(
It rained in Raleigh today. An off and off misting drizzle that made the locals nervous. It was not RAIN.. it was just and on...............all day. 

Compare and contrast... Raleigh Rainy Day ... Hmmmm

It's all a matter of perspective I suppose...

With regard to Hurricane Prep ...TWC is having a PREP RALLY tomorrow on air.. A good idea, however I think it's a little too cute even for me. 

If you live in South Florida this Sunday is a good time to go to a program that entertains and educates at the same time.


It doesn't get easier or better than this... GO!

You can go from there to Walmart and buy hurricane supplies that are Tax Free.

In North Carolina there were also warnings... though very few events publicizing Hurricane Preparation. A short article. 

Nothing special going in Raleigh that I could find...sadly. I'll explain why that's sad in a few minutes.

In Wilmington a city on the Cape Fear River not far from Wrightsville Beach there is a program on June 26th for Children. Good idea.. they get hit more often than Miami does in any given year.

Here's a good post on what really happened in Raleigh after Fran hit the coast of NC near Wilmington.

Here is a preview of a wonderful day by day account of what it was to live in Raleigh with trees down, power out and a good amount of inland flooding after Hurricane Fran. 

"Day before: Thursday September 5, 1996

We heard Hurricane Fran was on her way, but would probably go east of us. Hurricane Bertha hit us a few weeks ago and we had had worse thunderstorms so we weren't too concerned. We didn't bring in anything that was sitting outside. Around 9pm the wind started howling outside, and we realized it was going to be pretty scary, but still weren't too concerned so we went to bed around 11pm. It was raining hard.

Day 1: Friday, September 6, 1996

We were woken up when the power went out (we have things that make noise when they lose power). We could hear the wind howling a lot but we went back to sleep.

Around 1:30am

We realized we were both wide awake. The wind was howling so loud that you couldn't hear the rain coming down. We could hear trees falling. Thud. That one was far away. Thud. That one was close! We got up and tried to look outside. Thomas shined a flash light out our kitchen and we saw a huge tree fallen in our back yard. At this point we realized that this was a really serious storm! We went down to our laundry room and water was pouring under the door. The laundry room already had water covering the floor. We put towels up against the door to slow the flow. Thomas wanted to go outside to put something up against the door but I wouldn't let him. We figured later that if we would have opened the door, water would have poured in. There was nothing we could do, so we went back to bed to wait out the storm. Of course we couldn't sleep at all. The wind would die a little and then it would whip back up and then trees would fall. Finally around 4am it quieted down and we went to sleep. We found out later that at that point the eye of the hurricane was over us."

The picture below is posted on his site. It is a picture of what his backyard looked like.... 

I interviewed a man yesterday who worked at a car lot next to Crabtree Creek. He went to work, because no one thought the hurricane would affect Raleigh far inland, and he watched from his office window as the creek rose and rose and began to spill over into the car lots that lined Old Wake Forest Road. In real time he watched over 20 cars become submerged under the water. Another person I spoke to worked at Crabtree Mall which became cut off from their parking lot and workers were trapped inside unable to get to their cars...or home.

From Wikipedia:

"Flooding risk
Crabtree Valley Mall is situated next to Crabtree Creek, a tributary of the Neuse River that begins near Morrisville and winds through Umstead State Park as well as western and north central Raleigh. As the watershed around the mall become increasingly covered with impervious parking lots, the creek floods easily following major storms. Such floods occurred frequently in the mall's early years, but diminished with the construction of Lake Crabtree and large retaining basins upstream of the mall.

Heavy rains caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto flooded the lower level parking lots of the mall on June 14, 2006, as well as a great deal of the bottom level of anchor store Sears, forcing the mall to close for the day. A similar situation occurred with Hurricane Fran in 1996, when flood waters flowed through the first floor of the mall and caused a few stores to remain closed for nearly two months."

This article from 2006 with pictures of submerged cars shows..nothing really has changed. And, if Raleigh gets a storm like Hurricane Hazel or Hurricane Fran the oak trees will snap in the wind, crack into pieces all over the deck and onto the rooftops and ....roads will flood. It will be a mess. It's happened before, it will happen again. And, yet... no one here seems to have that concern that people down at the coast have ... 

Because everyone knows TWC goes to beach cities like Miami and Palm Beach and Myrtle Beach and Wrightsville Beach... but the hurricanes keep on going after the film crews have moved on which is what happened when Hugo took Charleston and kept on going.

INLAND FLOODING is one of the biggest problems in any storm ... any where and yet people inland do not have the same concern for hurricanes as the people down at the coast.

Raleigh, for example, is "THE CITY OF OAKS" and well I have to tell you... oaks do not bend like palm trees. They crash through people's homes in the middle of the night and people die... never knowing what hit them. That is as real as I can get here.

So... if you live anywhere within this Hurricane Map.. pay attention because tornadoes happen, inland flooding happens and oak trees that go crack in the night happen. 

Half of the people killed in Hurricane Fran ...were killed by falling trees far from the beach.

One last preview of an article that you need to read:
"Fran killed 24 people in North Carolina. Half of these victims were killed by falling trees. In the Raleigh area alone, hundreds of trees fell, and many of them fell on houses, cars, and people. WRAL reported on one family that spent the storm in a parking garage because it was safer than staying in their mobile home. Indeed, Mary Bland Reaves, like many others, was killed when a falling tree crushed her mobile home. But some other Raleigh residents were more lucky. Thao Do, got up in the middle of the night only minutes before a heavy tree crashed through the roof and landed on the bed where she had been sleeping. Others, like Patti Clinton and brothers Evan and Eric Hamo experienced similar close calls.

In addition to falling trees, Fran also brought heavy rain to Raleigh. Many people had tried to escape Fran’s reach by evacuating to Raleigh, but once there, they were stranded by rising flood water. Crabtree Creek rose 16 feet, cresting at 7 feet above flood stage. Guests at the nearby Sheraton Hotel found themselves surrounded by 6 feet of water. A heart patient and a diabetic, both needing medical attention, were trapped in the hotel until Ray Williams and Lupton Pittman braved the waters and brought back wetsuits, emergency items, and a canoe.

Similar rescues were happening in other cities, too. Candido Suarez, a police detective in Jacksonville, used a Jet-ski to rescue 20 people from a flooded street. In Bladen County, a pregnant woman called just after midnight during the storm. Four different emergency crews cut their way through fallen trees for 53 minutes before they reached the expectant mother and took her to the hospital to deliver her baby. Both her and the baby were saved."

When TWC has their "Prep Rally" tomorrow... pay attention. Listen up.. it could happen to you sometime this year. And, may I remind people that most people in NYC before Hurricane Sandy didn't think it would really happen to them... until it did!

Take it seriously. The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a town near you in 3 Days. 

Besos Bobbi


And............if there are any typos here I'll fix them later or in the morning. I've had a horrible migraine all day. Not sure why.. maybe it's the "rain" (smiling) or the barometer dropping or ... who knows. Easier to predict the weather sometimes than a migraine. But, I did want to post on this because as we inch closer to the start of the Hurricane Season people do read up on things they need to know and Inland Flooding is a problem we all need to pay more attention to before it happens.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Watchings Models & Patterns in the Caribbean. 5.8 Earthquake Mona Passage. Maya Angelou Passes Away..

In our neck of the woods all is still quiet in the Atlantic...
a weakened Amanda moves very slowly towards Baja in the EPAC
some of her moisture may be coming to a town near you though...

You can watch this process on the loop the oozy oranges moving into the..
Gulf of Mexico..

I call this image Oozy Orange..

Something to watch and keep an eye on.. 
This is how the season starts... in bits & pieces ...
warmer waters as the tropics heat up..slowly..
day by day... 
wave by wave...

Luckily if you live in FLORIDA you can start preparing this coming weekend and it's TAX FREE!
Doesn't get much better than that...
Don't complain in late July that Miami or Tampa Bay are under the gun 
and you had to rush out buying expensive hurricane supplies
Get em now ... tax free... 
check the details... the devil is always in the details has been advertising this great opportunity online..
Good for them........ people need to know..

Sometimes I feel like I grew up on I mean I go back to when it was known as Cyclone's Central Florida Hurricane Center. Sometimes I wonder what some people think I remember or don't but I am digressing. Then again I probably spent my pre-teens on AOL MESSAGE BOARDS aka "HURRICANE HISTORY" and then moved on to where I post often as LOISCANE because I didn't want to be Bobbi there :) but that's a different story... moved on to my teen years on where I still hang out...  and I'm here... Bobbi Storm :)

A friend teased me the other day that I have migrated to TWITTER :) Ummmm well he would know.
I find Twitter the best place for fast info on a wide variety of topics.
I still love message boards.
I love to talk about the tropics.

Yesterday I was speaking to a group of people about how hard it is to predict how this upcoming season will turn out. I gave the example of if a volcano blew it's top in the Caribbean it could possibly affect tropical formation within that region. I think the jury is still out ... the same way people argue if there is such a thing as "earthquake weather" which I know because I used to watch people talk on the old Earthquake Board on AOL (smiling... again all meteorologists are wannabe geologists and find a geologist and you'll find a wannabe meteorologist...)

A rather strong earthquake just occurred in the Dominican Republic.
5.8 is strong and damage reports will most likely come in.. the Mona Passage is rocking & rolling today!

Back to hurricanes and the tropics.

The models are trending...surging... retreating...trending again. Sort of like watching waves at the beach. Things get choppy...they calm down...then suddenly waves pick up again.

An enjoyable friend on Twitter puts it well.. "TRENDING" and that is what we do this time of year.. we watch the TRENDS and the MODELS and we wait for a REAL SYSTEM TO FORM..

He's good. He's fun. He's got style.

Now all we need is for something to spin up in real time vs model time..

Mike puts it well on his Facebook Page..

What do I think?

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Whatever comes up from the Caribbean will help erode the High... 
The HIGH that has given South Florida a DRY MAY

That high keeps vibrating back and forth but it just won't let go.. 
something to watch and pay attention to.. 
trends, patterns and climatology

Keep watching and while you are watching ..if you live in FL...start making a list and then ..

Check out this site for the actual details:

Besos Bobbi
Ps.. Maya Angelou passed away today. Sad... "a caged bird stands on the graves of dreams" we all lost a beautiful voice today.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Do the Models See Arthur in the GOM or do they see much ADO about nothing?

You be the judge here???

It forms down near the Yucatan in what is the most typical early June scenario you will see..

Hmmmm weak possibilities with moisture that transfers from Amanda and wiggles it's way East into the Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico.

You can follow these models at this really fun model site that plays great chaser music. Turn the sound up and if your computer starts playing "Wipe Out" its coming from this site ;)

Every one's talking about it and waiting to see if the models have been onto something or if they will back off.

Ryan Mauve is talking about it and that ups the ante for me to be a possible believer..

Join the discussion on Facebook from Mike's page from

Sort of cool to go online and see this:

Let me highlight the most salient feature on his page..besides the link to his Facebook Page ;)

There is support for a possible system from ongoing positive conditions.

Notice the green lime candy stripe sort of blob in the Caribbean next week... it shows enhanced rainfall.

What's there now? Not much...

Larry Cosgrove explains this excellently 

Larry is a good friend and a meteorologist I respect greatly... 
I've learned a lot over the years from him.. he is one of the best 

Now look at the track of Category 2 Amanda... on her way to becoming shallow... slowly

Remember where Amanda goes... moisture follows... 

How's the water in the Carib near the Yucatan?
Cold like in OBX or bathtub warm like Key West?

Warming up....

You can loop this loop yourself or find it on

A weak system like this would be very within the realm of climo which means it would be appropriate. In 1957 in June there was a storm named Audrey. 1957 is an analog year in Dr. Gray's report for the 2014 Hurricane Season.

Audrey is one of the few early A Hurricanes to make the list of Historic Hurricanes from the NHC.

Check out that list and see if your town was affected by a historic hurricane.. in June.

Again.........the 2014 Hurricane Season is almost upon us. Do not let your guard down because hurricanes are a lot like football games. On any given day... your town can be under the gun for a fast forming, quick moving tropical storm or hurricane. 

Stay prepared:

Stay informed:
Twitter @Bobbistorm

Besos Bobbi