This image should update in real time so if you look at it 3 days from now and it shows a hurricane or no hurricane or a Zero% chance that is why it's not in sync with my discussion.
Another image is below that will stay the same. It is a little experiment on my part of compare and contrast the yellow circles.
The image above is a memory set in stone of how the tropics appeared on August 29th at 10 AM as is the image below... which shows more areas to watch..
This is why I said they should draw a large yellow circle over a wide area...because there are multiple areas that may or may not develop.
Now days the NHC is trying to break up their graphic forecast maps into parts. A little too left brain if you ask me with some right artsy brain thrown in.
Remember the yellow numbers are short term, the long term percentages are in the discussion.
The area furthest west getting close to the Central Atlantic has a 10% chance now and a 20% chance of developing down the line:
Click the link above for their discussion.
Click the link to read their discussion.
The circle over Africa has a long range 30% chance of developing.
I understand what they are doing and I think it's good, however it's not quite right yet. It needs some work, but it's a good idea and helps analzye multiple areas that could be highlighted in the middle of September. At times it reminds me too much of those sites you don't want to read through that say "Top Ten Cities to Live IN" and then you have to click on a link (with loads of spam features) and then click on #9 and then #8 and well you get the picture OR... like most of it you pass and don't click on any of the links when you realize you are going to have to go through 15 screens to find out what could have been put into one list.
They are really trying hard to keep up with the technology level of the average viewer to their webpage. In the world of APPS and iPads and multipurpose phones that do everything but take a leak for you.. and now they are going waterproof for the set who is continually texting on the toilet and dropping their phones in ... the NHC is trying to provide information for everyone on a constantly moving target. It's not archery, which is what they would prefer. Bullseye...this is the system... 10%... check back tomorrow is what they would prefer. But, people want more and more and more these days. And, that's not bad, but it's hard to figure out the best way to make everyone happy these days.
It's like telephones (stick with me here) ... you know cell phones... fones.......... unless you are a loyal lover of one platform or another it's a big decision. I'm an Independent voter.. no D nor R nor even a L on my voters registration.
The iPhone is nice but Lord have mercy you spend your whole life hitting that middle button to do anything. For years I wanted one badly and now that I can get one... I don't think I do. Yes, it has great applications, but that's not my focus. And, speaking of focus.. I want a phone with a button on the side that allows me to bring up the camera immediately. Obvoiusly Focus on a Fone is what I want... I also want Gorilla Glass and the iPhone doesn't have it so now they have reinvented the wheel and everone is running around with a big brick around the phone as most people have shattered their screen numberous times. Add in a place for your credit card and keys.. it's getting sort of ugly unless you like ugly and the whole idea of the smooth, sleek, sexy looking iPhone is now lost as it's become the heavy weight you carrry around as it no longer fits easily where it used to.
That was how it was sold in the old days.
Then the 5 came out... longer but not wider... oh so sexy..........
This is how it looks on YOU................. in an otter box of one type or another...
Sort of like the way women who are sexy and beautiful and a size 12 look at models who are a size 0 wearing outfits that do not look good on the average woman...but look great in the magazine. Real women have breasts and that cute empire waisted mini dress on a busty woman makes her look very busty and 4 months pregnant. If you have no shape and you wear them you look cute, sexy... delicate, appealing. They are not made for busty women. And, that is why if you don't give us a V neck tee shirt we are going to take a szizzor and cut a line down the middle so we can breathe and look cute....
Models are for the runaway....
The iPhone is no longer sleek and sexy, because people are getting tired of replacing them and are buying into the otter box which I do not want... maybe purple on the outside and hurricanes on the back but no really unless I am using it as a clutch purse like my almost daughter-in-law does I'm no longer in love and I think not. Maybe.
Windows Phone............I really do want this phone and most likely will get it. I want something different, colorful, fast and a good camera and it has all of that in one sexy thin box which does have gorilla glass and won't look too big when I put a protector on it.
Nice.. I can make the tiles purple :) it has a button on the side for pictures.. it has a kick ass camera. I can customize it and it has enough Apps or APPS or however we spell it for me. I really wanted the blue one not the silver fox one............ petty I know. I'm both right and left brain which is my problem. It's big...another problem as I have small hands.
The Galaxy S4 is a little big for my very small hands, it's easy for me to use as the SWYPE works well on it, but it doesn't have the dedicated button and no I don't want to hack my own phone.
I also want a phone I can type on with less stress than correcting the mistakes and no do NOT tell me I don't want this phone because I do...
It's light weight, has a good battery, works fast and yes I do know it's a Blackberry and yes I heard they are for sale and it has a keyboard and a camera and it's fast and light and fits in my hand.
Big decisions and after using an old phone temporarily with a real key board I have to tell you I love it and am not constantly freaking annoyed because I don't get the word Terri for the word "there" and seeing as I don't have any Terri people in MY life and have not typed the word Terri before I don't know why my phone always wanted to type it. And, there is a long list of words I compiled that ...by the way... I never type that my phone keeps trying to type when on the setting showing my vocabulary (are you reading this currently now...) anyway...
The NHC's new delivery platforms and adjustments to their page is like me trying to choose a new phone. There is just so much out there available and they are trying to keep up and I know that if I wait two months there will be a newer Windows Phone and Apple has an announcement next month to possibly fix the problems with the 5 that people are bitching about and the S9 should be out faster than you can say "Sam you made the pants too long"
What do I want?
A phone that is fluid and easy to type on and has options of a real keyboard.
A camera button and a drop dead great camera.
A phone that does not break when I drop it and smash into smithereens that cut me.
A phone with a long battery life.
A phone that is fun, different and uniquely me.
A phone that doesn't weigh too much and doesn't need to go on a diet, but not one that is too thin.
A phone that fits in my hand.
Back to weather.....................
Another great map the NHC has come up with that Mike has put on the front page of www.spaghettimodels.com is this one.
Ha! Did you hear ANYONE talk about that tropical wave getting near the islands today on TWC? I bet not.
I've mentioned it a few times. It's there and should be watched even if nothing will come from it.
Another wave to watch OVER Africa is this one.... because the lead wave will spin up fast and most likely go too far North as it will be overdeveloped way too early and not giving any examples that I could give of what it is like to be drop dead gorgeous at 14 and look like you are 24... you get burned out too fast sometimes if you know what I mean.
The wave behind the lead wave with the 10% chance has a larger, huge pocket and might stay more to the south. Maybe.
Maybe being the word of the summer of 2013.
Maybe we will have a very active hurricane season.
Maybe we are starting winter at a record early point.
Maybe we are going to have one hell of a hard winter and TWC is going to have to go through 2 alphabets to keep up.
Maybe I'll make up my mind today or tomorrow on which phone to buy. Either way I have a whole lot of pictures I want to upload and go through from this one and I am actually enjoying typing rather pretending it's normal to type on a glass brick that is now being engaged in a HUGE FORTRESSLIKE OTTER BOX.
And, maybe I will write a long blog on Katrina which is another case of living in denial. 33,000 people were evacuated after Katrina not because Katrina was a big, bad ugly storm, but because 33,000 PLUS people lived in denial that one day a storm would take out the levee that everyone knew was going to fail one day and that one day a storm would hit it just so and wipe everything away.
Denial. The government knew both locally and nationally speaking that the levees were not going to hold. But, people lived there. And, people love living in New Orleans and ONLY the area in the French Quarter is high and dry during a storm which is by the way WHY the early settlers chose it after learning the hard way that bayous flood. The same way the early settlers in Key West filled in the mosquitoes infested ponds which were near Duval Street and moved the cemetery to higher ground after the graves were washed away in an early storm. Flood plains flood some day. Ocracoke is stunningly beautiful... it gets washed out and over in a big hurricane. Miami is built at the edge of the most beautiful Biscayne Bay that will one day carry a storm surge towards Brickell and do billions, trillions of damage and people who live in denial will get washed away if they don't evacuate.
We all live in denial on various levels. Pretending you can type on a glass brick is a game of denial. It works, you manage but it's not easy or fluid and it's annoying as hell. Which is why they made Siri... Now do I really want a long term relationship with Siri in my life? Hmnnnn..
So that's the state of my tropics and my life today and the 33,000 people who should have been given better ways to evacuate the 9th Ward and other areas are no different than the Vets who should never have been left down in the Florida Keys with water on each side feet away from their camps in the 1935 Labor Day Storms. Yes... the worst case scenario happened, but still someone..somewhere failed those people. Maybe we the media failed them because the Mayor New Orleans said IF you stay write your social security number on your body so survivors can figure out who you were.......and keep an axe with you to hack your way through to the roof top for a chance of surviving and for some reason it was not played up as much as it should have been. Denial....
Have a great day... watch all the videos on Katrina and if you live near a river that once flooded know it will flood again. If you live near a fault like like the New Madrid Fault.. know it will become active again. If you live in Tornado country you may see a Twister and if you live near the ocean know a storm surge may come and wash it all away.
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line: Enjoy what you've got while you've got it and know that things can change any time and it will be gone. Don't live in denial... appreciate what you have.. love the river and the mountains and the forest that can catch fire and smile and say "thank you" to those you love and enjoy what you've got and make sure those you love know you love them.............smile more, frown less and give thanks!
Have a great day...........................
Ps...See how happy I am when there are no Zero Percent Circles on the map and I have two daughters I adore near by :)