The Navy has issued a Tropical Cyclone Alert on their website with a preliminary, short term track that bodes problems for the islands. Mind you, Emily has not formed yet, but she will. Currently, the NHC is issuing advisories on their new depression in the Pacific, so they may wait until they have more hard data to upgrade the soon to be new depression in the Atlantic.
Can you spell, thinks are heating up???
I posted the image from the Incomparable Skeetobite's site below here, check it out. To stay on top of this ever changing tropical world we live in, bookmark this site:
And, until we get recon out there with accurate data to feed into the multiple models that whisper into the ear of the forecasters at the NHC what Emily will do... we might have a case of garbage in and garbage out. However, a trend does seem to be developing as fast as Emily is out in the Atlantic.
We see a path that is WNW and swings up through or over the islands and which islands she cuts a path across makes a big difference. IF she goes through the Virgin Islands, for instance, it barely puts a dent in her. IF she goes across Hispaniola before turning to the north she will have to rebuild a bit and well when they go through Hispaniola one never knows what will happen for sure after that trek. She could miss the islands all together which could mean two things: a stronger storm and/or a faster turn. Anything past a three day forecast without a real definitive call on her center and strength at this time is just guesstimating.
So, stay tuned.
Remember one thing... each model spits out somewhat different data. Similar, but different and if you want to know what the difference is check out the graphics below. That's a big difference depending on where you live. Now, if you live in Idaho it might not seem so big, but if you live in Miami or the Bahamas it's a really BIG difference. And, if you live in Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands it's the difference of a smile or a grimace.
And, lastly if you have nothing to do today and want to go away over night while the living is easy in the Florida Keys, may I suggest going to Rock Reef Resort in Key Largo. I'll post more on this later when I have some time. The place is a trip back into time to a tropical Garden of Eden or the Florida Keys in the 1960s. Beautiful, serene, lush and tropical...the word TROPICAL cannot be understated, it's heavenly. A quiet private beach in the Keys, hammocks to swing to sleep in and tables to picnic at or write the Great American Novel..whichever you prefer. One of the nicest places I have ever been.
YES, it really looks like this and I have the pictures to prove it. Check it out, because it is truly a paradise on earth.
If I wasn't going to my son Levi's engagement party tonight, I'd be there relaxing with a glass of wine and watching the sunset. It's a beautiful day to go away if you live in South Florida, whether you are taking a walk on the Hollywood boardwalk (which I might do) or driving south a short ways to paradise...enjoy it! For my part (if Susan is reading this) it's a day I've waited for a long time. Levi has not been the easiest child to raise...in fact at times he raised himself as well as a few of my younger kids. I've seen him do things that I am not at liberty to talk about as I am the only parent who is not talking to the press ;) but he is capable of almost anything, trust me. He is amazing, brilliant, handsome and smart with a fiance who is equally as special. Can't wait to party this evening!
So, in honor of Levi I'm gonna post this great link that he is most likely too busy to click on that will give you up to date information on what MIGHT be Emily's first stop in her tropical trek across the Atlantic. Great information on any island in the world anywhere, especially Dominica or the Dominican Republic. Isn't it wonderful having a mother whose a reference librarian?? Sorry, bear with me... in a somewhat celebratory and silly mood.
As for those tracks.... check out the differences and keep watching the tropics because they are getting very tropical from a weather point of view. If you've been wanting to take a nice vacation, do it now while you can because after this year a few places might be in the rebuilding mode and no I am not hyping... I am just going with the predictions of the experts in the tropical weather world.
Enjoy your Sunday, whatever you do and no matter where you live nor who you are may we always enjoy parties and happy days.
As for where Emily might go to party, check out the possibilities below. And, remember that while it is Summertime and the living is easy, it can sometimes seem a bit nerve wracking and uncomfortable, the way Janis Joplin sings about it in the link below. You get a little hot under the collar, beads of sweat slowly slide down your head into places you don't always want to mention online.... you get a bit queasy watching the weather forecast and then when the storm slowly slides by your city you let out a sigh and feel jazzed and crazy, great song even if it leaves me feeling a bit uneasy. And, yes you have to wait for it to load and for Janis to get going, a lot like waiting for Emily.
Ps. The Navy did not say WHEN for sure it would form, they are just stating the obvious and doing their job, next the NHC does theirs. In between, I do mine which is to keep y'all informed as best as I can while entertaining you a bit as well.