Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 29, 2008

Sub-Tropical Storm Laura & Other Sweet Things



First and foremost.. a new storm formed in the Atlantic Basin over night. She is currently moving west-northwest however she is destined to turn it seems out to sea and follow Kyle into the North Atlantic.

Has this season given you variety or what? I know... a Cape Verde would have been nice, most trackers and researchers will not be happy with any season that does not have one long tracking storm that goes from the islands off of Africa with advisories as it passes past the Cape Verde Islands and slowly west bound around the largest Bermuda High that ever existed. From the getco it should form yet not strong enough to be pulled north. IF possible..it should dip wsw for at least 3 advisories before correcting itself west bound for our side of the planet. I think we are getting a little late for such a storm and it's a shame because the waves were there early this summer and then they fizzled as fall approached.

Either way there are more storms to form and looking forward to Marco. I've always had a thing for Marco. Yeah, yeah I know he did some bad things in the past but he was always fun, always colorful... in his youth and as he aged. Has there ever been a Hurricane Luke or Sonny I wonder?



Then there were the Marco storms that wiggled their way through the western carib trying to find a path out of there...




Or your typical late in the season ... I'll head NW towards Florida and "oh my gosh it's in my way.. I'm not a bad storm, I'm just trying to find the Atlantic!"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Marco_(1990)

So...though I cannot promise you a Cape Verde I think I can safely promise you a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marco this year!

What a soap opera weather is..



I'm sure either way.. we will have mixed emotions about the rest of the season... Will Ike be the BIG storm from this year or is there some Mitch like M storm yet to form and terrorize or amuse some tropical tracker? Only time will tell...

As for Miami... a lot of rain is moving in from the Caribbean.

I'll be away for the Jewish High Holidays when we eat sweet foods and spend time with our families and friends welcoming in the Jewish New Year. I'll probably be back later today but if now... Sweet Dreams and have a Sweet, Happy and Healthy Year!

Making Sweet Potato Pie later today... Pineapple Upside Down Kugel came out just fine ;)

Love and kisses..Besos Bobbi

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Maine Gets a Taste of Tropical Weather.. Florida System Down the Pike?



Okay.. Maine seems to be getting a taste of tropical weather this morning as Kyle cruises by on his date with the Canadian Maritimes. My best friend Sharon who loves Maine, has lived in Maine and is missing Maine has a Sunday Brunch meeting with me so this is going to be short as my "to do" list is long today and she's pissy she is missing this.

May I explain as I have been told "you can feel it's tropical air" when a system like this goes by.. that's how it is different from a Nor'easter. She says you can feel it in the air.. you can smell it, it smells and feels tropical, heavy, humid.. not cool and crisp like a regular New England Nor'easter.

Supposedly there is the possibility of a tropical system of unknown intensify forming a few days out down by the Yucatan and coming in from the SW towards Florida.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Steve Lyons is talking about it on TWC yet there is no NRL Invest.. so time will tell.

GFS does that maybe Naples maybe Tampa dance we know so well in early model forecasting..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008092806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Some models see it.. some don't, sort of like me this morning. Now you see me, now you don't.

Sort of like the flooding on Miami Beach which I heard was bad over the weekend. They might want to move Surprise Lake from 53rd down to 5th and Alton Road. Nice how they had so much money to buy all those cute poles with itsy bitsy print for the tourists to read as they drive by that show the way to North Beach and all the little wraps they bought to cover them up til they were ready to show them off yet they couldn't fix the flooding on South Beach and make THAT a priority.. hmmmmnnnn..

Besos Bobbi

Friday, September 26, 2008

Freaky Flooding Friday on Miami Beach.





At high tide this morning Biscayne Bay came up onto the streets of Miami Beach through the sewers and drains and flooded the roadways during morning drive time. The flooding was so bad that traffic had to be detoured off of Alton Road near 43rd Street at the entrance to Mt. Sinai Hospital. The water was from Biscayne Bay a block to the west. Along Indian Creek on the East Side of Miami Beach the creek was so high that it poured over the banks of the Creek and out onto the street. The water was so high it covered the whole road way and when a big city bus (the M Bus I think) drove by fast it created a wave that splashed up over our car window and temporarily blinded us as if we were under water.. which we were.

It was awesome to see the banks of the Creek just pouring over it's banks out into the street.

I bet if you lived in Miami today you didn't here anything about it. Nothing. Nada. You never do. Number one.. it happens a few times a year though more usually on Alton Road south of 17th Street and two... we don't want the tourists to get wind of it let alone water ;)

Here's a great blog from LAST May when the water was from the heavy Spring rains.

Scroll down to May 20th and why he couldn't get his bagel for breakfast. Trust me if he is still living here he didn't get one today either.

http://www.southbeachrealestateblog.com/page/21/

I wrote about it last year here online when I tried to make a fast trip to Wild Oats and had to take my shoes off, hike up my skirt and wade through water that was so deep that it had made it's way partially into Wild Oats and taking over the Produce Section. It was coming up from the drains in the store under the lettuce section.

Nothing changes, it happens often however this time it wasn't so much from the rain as it hasn't rained that heavy the last few days but the Lake and


http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/MI98642/

http://cbs4.com/local/miami.beach.floods.2.826470.html

Channel 7 is attributing it to the system off shore but I would say a good part of it is attributable to the dumping of water from the lake and South Florida Water Management recently.. it trickles down, always fills up Indian Creek. The whole last week or two ..way before this system in the Atlantic I made the comment to my friend driving to work that I had rarely seen the Bay so high driving across North Bay Village and the 79th Street.

As the man on Channel 7 just said, "this goes on for years and years" and I will add nothing is ever done. It happens from heavy rain, high tide and if a storm is offshore but this is from a refusal to solve a problem that affects local businesses all the time. Meridian Market gets flooded out every time this happens as does Wild Oats and other businesses.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-flplakeo0829pnaug29,0,4437265.story

An article about a controversial lowering of Lake water..

Not sure if they did or didn't but a few days after I heard they were going to ... Biscayne Bay looked as if it would overflow onto the causeways at high tide.

On Collins Avenue the Haulover Beach Boat docks were so flooded the water came out over the parking lot and onto the street. High tide... by low tide it was gone with only high water marks left on the road that covered part of the street .. a lone reminder that Miami Beach is very low and barely above sea level and should a real hurricane come in from the east or up from the South the water will reclaim Miami Beach ..the way it does after a good strong rain ..except that the water will not go down at low tide.

Unreal.. in all the years I have seen this happen I have NEVER seen it as bad as to see Indian Creek pouring over onto the road side through the mangroves like a murky waterfall.

As for elsewhere in the tropics...

Kyle is like 60 mph and moving north possibly towards Maine or more likely the Fishing Routes of the Perfect Storm fame. What should have been named Kyle is inland and spinning over the Carolinas. The Bay of Campeche system looks weak and is now streaming moisture up into South Florida and I think it will rain over Shabbos. And, far out in the Mid-Atlantic there is a wave that is possibly trying to develop. Slow goings in the tropics for September as my mind turns to other things such as what kind of noodle kugel I will make.. peach I think and will I make Cous Cous or Stuffing with Roasted Chicken and will I put crushed pineapple or chunk into the Tzimmes and how much Sweet Potato Pie I will make for Rosh Hashanona..

Hey, we all have priorities and my priority right now is to rest, relax and hope and pray someone has a clue as to what to do to get our economy back working again.

Pumps on Miami Beach might be a nice idea also!!

Good Shabbos.. Have a great weekend. TGIF!!!

Bobbi

2007... still happening.. a year later



2006... a regular normal day on Miami Beach in a heavy rain...

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Forms!



In the Atlantic from the system that plagued the islands earlier in the week. It is moving. Probably out to sea though I heard in Maine the local weather people are discussing it seriously as affecting their weather. Will see... the window for it to hit Long Island seems to have snapped shut proving again how hard it is to hit Long Island and Rhode Island and yet... something will once again as it has before.

The Coastal Low is moving inland bringing very high surf and strong winds and cool air on it's back side.

I remember when I lived in Crown Heights we would get strange cold fronts at times in off the ocean called "back door cold fronts" which once in a while local Florida weather people use to describe a Nor'easter sort of system.

The Bay of Campeche has weather but it doesn't excite me much..hard to say right now, see tomorrow in the morning.

Been a long day and I am a little under the weather. Yeah, you probably knew that when you didn't see me posting all day. Just fighting off a cold or something. I need sleep, rest.. maybe I'll make chicken soup for Shabbos :) Or sushi.. lol. Miso Soup?

Just so tired. Tired of commuting and working all day and aren't we all? We are all in the same boat here. I got a good job, good friends, good family, good crazy people.. no seriously.. being honest here... sometimes you just wish you could close your eyes and open them and be in Key West staring up at the sky, the palms and the birds flying by. Planes coming in for a landing at the airport.. oh, opps... let's go back to the palms so deep green against the sky and the frangipangi trees hot pink in the breeze..

Night..Bobbi

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

It's Pouring Beautiful Cool Rain..

Heavy, noisy, musical, melodious rain falling down with a hint of fall as the air is cool and lacking that tropical swampy feel rain often has in the summer.

But, it's not summer anymore.. it's Fall and prior to the rain it was windy and cool. A sort of frontal feel or coastal storm feel.

Driving home on the Collins Avenue tonight the palm fronds were flying in all directions, fluttering like butterflies and falling like rocks onto the pavement below as we drove around them. Seriously.. watched two really big old palm fronds falling and sweeping across several lanes of traffic before ending up partially on the meridian and partially blocking the left lane. Water in Indian Creek is so high and has waves, real little waves and wouldn't be surprised at high tide if some of those mansions that front Pine Tree Drive with lawns down to the water have a little flooding.

Has that feel of some system out there whipping up the wind and the water and winter coming some time sooner rather than later this year.

Tropical = warm core


Subtropical = cold core

Nor'easter delivers snow inland. Gee..I don't see any snow warnings for this so I don't see how it's a nor'easter though.. does have that coastal storm feel to it even far away in Miami.

So.. for now I don't even care if it has a name or a designation.

I'm just happy it's raining cool rain and I have the windows open and the friggin' AC OFF and there is a breeze blowing through my house and I'm thinking what to make for the Jewish High Holy Days or as we call them.. the Yom Tovim!

Change of seasons.. I love it!

Happy Windy Rainy Day!!

Ps.. I will of course update if they decide to call it anything other than "neat coastal storm."

Where oh Where Can My Kyle Be??? ????



Well when I woke up I heard local mets talking on how today would be the day that 93 would begin to move north and develop and interact with the Nor'easter like subtropical storm forming off the Carolinas..

And then................... I looked at the Satellite Loops..............


?!?!?!?! Huh???

Lots of luck for recon on this one cause I think 93 has been taken away to heaven for not becoming a land falling system and don't see Kyle anywhere else today..

Shame they didn't name it Kyle.. would have been one storm NOT to hit the American Coastline.. unless of course you count Puerto Rico as part of the American Coastline.

Is it?

Hmmnnn well, we will see..



In another blog I did put out the thought that had Hawaii and Alaska not become the 49th and 50th State of our Perfect Union Hilary would be running with Richardson and McCain with Kay Bailey Hutchinson.. go figure. Wonder why Puerto Rico hasn't gotten to become the 51st state? Do we like Samoan Indians and Eskimos better than we do plain old Hispanics? Something to think on if you are getting bored with the lack of activity for your brain in the tropics..

Besos Bobbi

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Question? Why Is it Called a Nor'Easter and Not a Subtropical?



Really that was my question and just clarifying when I said why won't 93 be Laura I really meant... why would the system off the Carolina's be called a Nor'easter and not a Subtropical.

What is the difference? I don't know for sure but am sure there are lots of answers.

Either way... 93 is looking a bit better this evening. So stay tuned.

Whatever it is called off the Carolinas is going to put on a good show later this weekend. Wish I was there..

Nite, Bobbi



(nope.. no bathing beauties..sorry... have to scroll down to see the Yellow Bikini one again... love the gang at HurrCity ;) lol)

93 Looks Weak Tonight.. Will It Ever Be Kyle? Maybe Laura?



Okay... good call by the NHC on the system which I think is now south of Hispaniola but we will find out one of these days when it emerges out into the water and forms into a real storm.

I do think it was a Tropical Depression or even a storm a day or two ago but it has rained itself out and been torn up by friction with high mountains after a painfully slow track that makes Fay and Gustav's stay over Hispaniola seem like a speedy Gonzalez.

This morning 93 looked great and this evening it has deteriorated into an ill formed, cluster of convection and stormy weather. Like polka dots or a connect the dots game.

It's one big band has now reformed and is slapping Puerto Rico a second time as if it was the tail of an angry alligator! It has an almost dragon like look on some sats.

What can I say good about it? It has a big round moisture pocket that can fill back in if it reforms.

It's as if it's afraid to come out of the water.. afraid the steering currents will want to take it back north over Haiti and the Dominican Republic and doesn't want to play anymore. As Jim points out on the Tropical Update the upper level environment is beginning to become better, shear lower... let's see how it does over night.

Beginning to wonder if Kyle is elsewhere and this sits down there long enough it becomes Laura. A pretty Laura unsure where to go or what to do who just wants to lounge on the beach in her pretty yellow bikini..

There is a wave further to the east and the great nor'easter we are waiting to see form ... maybe that could get a name? Do they name Nor'easters and if not ..why not? Why can't we call that one Kyle and this one Laura?

I wonder... it's been a long day and I am prone to wondering at the end of a long day.

I wonder why I can't be in North Carolina with my boyfriend watching the Nor'easter blow through on Shabbos. If I win the lotto tomorrow night.. you know where to find me lol.

It's Miami, it's hot and sort of strangely rainy and I am fighting off a cold or something with half the population down here.

As for this season.. I have a few private thoughts that I will keep to myself for now as they are hiding in the water with the center of 93. But, this whole season has seemed a month too early. We had Cape Verde Waves in June and July yet few in August and September. We have Nor'easter forming early and the Tornado season was off as well. I'm wondering if this season will end early and fast with maybe a few late storms when the MJO comes back to it's home field advantage.

Jim Williams did a good update, give it a look and think on it:
Worth watching...
http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

We'll see. Time will tell. NHC was right to hold off... I'll give them that but with a name or without a name this system known as 93 did plenty of damage and was just another in a list of storms that battered Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with rain, floods and tropical misery.

Maybe it's a kind system and is afraid to come out of the water and do any harm.

Right now.. it's sort of an almost naked wave with only a few strong dots on satellite imagery where the convection and the center remain. Red dots on AVN, Yellow on Funktop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

You connect the dots and you decide where the center is and in the meanwhile.. donate food, clothes or money to the relief effort for Haiti that needs so much more than clothes, food and water but we can't bring back the babies who died or the parents who were washed away leaving orphans.. all we can do is try to give what we can and hope that no more systems will get stuck over Hispaniola this year.

Sorry to bring you down.. this should cheer you up.. enjoy, donate and give thanks for all you have... Bobbi




Wherefore Art Thou Kyle? (Come on time to get real here)



Wherefore art thou Kyle and more important where are you going...??

Quick thoughts on a fast coffee break.

I think it's time to give it a name or at least a Tropical Depression Number...



Don't you think it's time now? What are we waiting for?

Models take this system north (eventually) and sling shot it around a building Noreaster and possibly into the Mid-Atlantic States like some New Age Long Island Express.. ala 1938 except it would be Kyle 2008!



Could happen.. not all that far fetched when you look at the fetch of tropical moisture out there and the current patterns and possibilities.

Time to get on with life here and start issuing advisories again...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008092300&field=
850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

(hit forward... )

GFDL Model that has favored son status hits Long Island. Maybe it's a fish... maybe, could be.. time will tell but for now it's time to call a storm a storm and give it a name.

Besos Bobbi ... back to work, yummy coffee ...

Great coffee place on 41st Street on Miami Beach www.loftylatte.com

Monday, September 22, 2008

A Storm By Any Other Name is Just As Wet and Wild!



4 people have died in Puerto Rico in deaths attributed to the tropical disturbance that dumped over 20 inches of rain creating flash floods and tropical misery.

http://uservideo.weather.com/video/Torrential-Rain-in-Humacao-Puer

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2251557420080922

And, the rain is going to spread west over Haiti not north into the Atlantic. Not just yet anyway.. it will eventually go north but when? And, how much rain will Haiti get from this no name storm?

The birth or naming of a tropical entity is a long, involved process that takes into account many things. And, just because there is severe weather does not mean it gets a name and yet despite not having a name someone gets severe weather.

The NHC issued a Statement that should help clarify things a little bit:

"SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES."


Often...tropical storms in their formation period have several possible centers. And, the recon plane is sent down there to fly a pattern that has been planned out a day or so before and it flies around in the ocean like a child lost in the forest looking for that elusive center that is seen so easily on satellite imagery yet eludes them like a dove in the moonlight hard to see but you know it's there.

This current system expected to become Kyle eventually has winds of over tropical storm force winds and it has a closed circulation seen on satellite imagery (quikscat) and yet it does not have a name. It happens. In the words of the great William Weathersford,"It is what it is!"

"It" has dumped over 20 inches of rain on Puerto Rico and will dump more on other areas

So, what do we have? An organized area with intense winds and a lot of tropical moisture yet we don't have a name but the system with any other name or without a name would still be dumping tons of rain and have tropical storm force winds.

However... until it is officially named it is like elusive lovers, the mid-level center and the lower level center dancing in the darkness, spinning around like star crossed lovers forbidden to be a real named entity, just dancing in the dark and dumping too much rain on areas that have been dumped on before this season.

Until the NHC and the planes searching around for the true center call home and tell us it has a name it is still an area of very stormy weather.

What is in a name after all?

This season has been like some Shakespearean Comedy. Storms dip SW when they are supposed to go NW. They blow up brightly red down by Jamaica when Jamaica was never in the script and then take off again and end up at the same point in the models where they projected it to be without the side trip to the SW. Models have been fantastic this season at predicting development so like Dolly and Gustav and Ike and Hanna I do think Kyle will form from this mess down here. Well, unless Kyle is up off the coast of Cape Hatteras and this storm is going to hang around until it gets the R name Romeo it needs to be watched as it has already been responsible for 4 deaths and may cause more misery to Hispaniola.

It simply is what it is and a storm by any other name would still remain a storm filled with sound and fury signifying nothing.. but that's another story for another day...

Sweet Tropical Dreams from the home of the Miami Dolphins who beat New England in New England!



(something about Romeo hiding in the bushes looking up at Juliet's window nags at me... better I DON'T think on it!)

Another Day, Another Dollar... Another Storm?

Nothing much to add to yesterday's post other than... suppose we are waiting for the men in the flying machines to drop the dropsonde onto the center of the system. Hope they find it. Gas being what it is .. it's a wasted trip otherwise as you can watch it spin on wunderground.com's radar and satellite imagery. Giggling. Private joke..

Come on... let's get this show on the road and get some good coordinates and some good models as... people in the Mid-Atlantic and New England may need to know..



(haha, surprised you...)
(did you know it tries to correct dropsonde to "droopiest" lol haha, no way)

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle Forming In the Caribbean



It's just a matter of time.

Looking better and better all night on satellite imagery. The planes went in and found it to be close but no cigar.

It has banding, a strong, condensed center and looks like a totally different system than it did earlier this afternoon when they were out there trying to figure it all out.

Some real possibility here that it could and I do mean *could* affect the Eastern Seaboard later this week. Some chances it could go in and make landfall in a similar track to Hanna but much stronger.

So.. keep watching because I do believe Tropical Storm Kyle is somewhere down there playing off the coast of Puerto Rico!

Still jazzed the Fins beat New England at New England 35-13 and those 13 points don't really tell the whole story.

Wow..

Also.. some info below for donating to charities helping people in the affected path of Ike. Give what you can.. even if every person gave a can of corn or a $2 it would make a difference. Sometimes it's not about the amount you give but how many people give that makes the difference!

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Catholic Charities
Archdiocese of Miami Storm Aid
9401 Biscayne Blvd.
Miami Shores, FL 33138

www.ccadm.org

http://www.foodforthepoor.org/site/c.dnJGKNNsFmG/b.3074717/
www.foodforthepoor.org
www.firstgiving.com/haiti

City of Miami is collecting food and water as part of Operation: Hope for Haiti
You can drop off water and canned food at any city of Miami Fire Station

World Vision
Attn: Haiti Relief
7220 NW 36th Street, Suite 228
Miami, FL 33166
checks can be made out to World Vision

As for Ike in Texas

www.redcross.org

http://www.chabadtexas.org/templates/blog/default_cdo/aid/734229/jewish/Hurricane-Relief.htm

http://www.chabadtexas.org/templates/blog/default_cdo/aid/404888

With the Jewish High Holidays coming up being able to help people in need of many forms of help as well as providing meals and just the little things to make life normal at a time when nothing is normal. Some how hurricanes and the Jewish Holidays always seem to come hand in hand as it's that time of year. It was during the Sukkos after Hurricane Andrew that the city trucks came to haul away the debris in front of our house.. a big step to being normal again!

By November we should all be able to give thanks the hurricane season is over and set about to rebuild, clean up and prepare better for the following hurricane season.

Fins Win! Ronnie Brown & Joey Porter Deliver

And, Chad Pennington played well too! :)

Well... for the first time in over 21 games. The Fins beat the New England Patriots!

Go figure.

And, have to think seriously on how if you believe you can .. maybe you can!

Yes... the coach gets his first win! We get our first win! Love it! Really love it!

But, Miami had two great Chads and we have a running game.. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and... Porter delivered and did his share in today's win! Wasn't really just a win, was more like shutting them down. Had they not had that great run back the score probably would have been 2 field goals.

So.. I go back a few days and watch how everyone was talking about Joey Porter predicting this win.

http://www.faniq.com/blog/Joey-Porter-Unimpressed-With-Matt-Cassel-Predict-Dolphins-Victory-Over-Patriots-Blog-11969

The question asked was "Can Someone Remind Joey Porter That He Plays For The Dolphins"

Well.. he knows and he's happy, can promise you that! It's a team to build on, to build with and to try and believe in.

I kept thinking all morning... they could win, they could be underestimated.. happens. Any given Sunday is what my father always told me. I didn't dare say it out loud, wrote something sad on my facebook and all but... deep down I thought to myself.. they could win if New England doesn't properly prepare and takes a win for granted and we play well.

We won... now what? Wow, do I feel good. Telling you a win is better than 2 Tylenol Sinus and a half of darvocet :)

Yup... we won!

As for the system in the Caribbean.. it's a work in progress as well ;)

"So if it's not Tom Brady, it shouldn't be that hard...It'll be good to go out there and get our first victory." Porter announced the Dolphins defense is going to come after Cassel."

http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_porter_18_09-18-08_MBBKKM9_v5.11bb95f.html

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2008/09/porter-new-engl.html
(good read)

As far as I am concerned.. Ronnie Brown who broke records today should be given the Key to the City of Miami.

The coach ain't bad either... great creativity with this win that had most members of the team taking a part in..

Wow.. we won! ;)
YAY!

For Jay:



(yeah i saw it lol, who cares we won..)

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement Issued - Recon In System

Planes are in the system... we should know but 5 if we have advisories or they couldn't find a closed center.

You be the judge:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Center? True or false?

Back to the Dolphins and waiting for a football miracle...

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Do You Remember September? Is there a Tropical Storm Kyle down there today who wants to dance...



Getting harder and harder to ignore the Tropical Disturbance down in the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

I know people would like to but you can't just ignore the things you don't like and live in a fantasy world. Can you? Well, some can but the rest of us have to dance in the real world.

The real world. It's not a house in Key West or a suite at the Ritz. It's the tropics and it's September and in September you remember hurricanes. Rule of thumb #1 in the hurricane basin!

So, what is down there today? A big mass of clouds that is going to give more rain to Puerto Rico and possibly move north if you believe the models yet how can you believe models that don't have a good starting point.

Every great novel needs a great beginning. Every great love story has that first moment when the young lovers eyes first meet and they know deep down in their soul they will never forget each other. It's like remembering something that never happened before and yet it did. A deja vu sort of moment. A cleansing of the heart. I am sure you remember it. Hasn't everyone been in love at least once in their life? Well, it's that way with hurricanes and tropical storms. There is that one satellite image that hits you just so while you are searching the Atlantic Basin for storms, swirls or even cloud masses resembling storms and you think "wow, has that look" and you know it's not going away. It's not falling apart. It's a keeper. Probably the K storm at that.

I'm in a quandary today or was. Couldn't decide what to write and I knew it was time to write. And, yet my brain is a bit foggy from a sinus headache or something and still half asleep as the coffee ain't doing it for me this morning. I need real coffee like Starbucks or Caribou or a cafecito on Lincoln Road or Calle Ocho.

In the end despite all the things I thought I might write on such as recovery from Ike, why all the REAL meteorologists don't think we are having global warming yet the young ones want to jump on the popular band wagon and play that song so their papers can get published and peer reviewed and why message boards seem to be slowly dying as people can't stop texting probably a friend to post and should I keep the sidekick or go blackberry? Just so many things not all that important to write on today once I really looked at the sat loops and saw this thing down there in the Caribbean trying to organize and get attention. So attention it gets as it deserves it.

As for me.. I seem to be taking a mental vacation. I am going sightseeing in my mind today. Places and faces from my past that seem to compete with my present and the path I am on right now. No models are going to work with me today. Not for Kyle and not for Bobbi. I am as constant as the moon and as unpredictable as quicksilver.

I thought on going down to Key West this weekend but was too tired for the ride and so happy to be home in my bed. One of those times you want to give thanks for what you have and that it didn't get blown away perhaps. Going to read the paper. Take a walk. Watch the Dolphin game. Write. Work on Bills. Maybe I'll color my hair. Maybe I'll just lay in the friggin' back yard and drink a beer and blast Kiss Country if there is a breeze. That's what we do Down South in those dog days of summer before Autumn sets in and we think on what to cook for the Jewish Holidays next month. Maybe if I watch the game on my little walkman that has batteries in it for the storm that never came watching the Fins lose will be easier.. won't seem as real if they are only 2 inches by 3 inches?

Something is down in the Caribbean and the MJO is oozing it's way back into our side of the world and we will ramp up on tropical activity again soon.

So, get out those old CDs or LPs or bake a cake or do whatever rocks your boat because we are going to be tracking really soon.

The cute men in their flying machines are going to go up into the air and try and figure out if we have a tropical depression or a storm named Kyle later today.

Will they find the K Storm?

Lot's of luck... they've always been a bit sneaky if you ask me.

Love and kisses... Bobbi from tropical Miami thinking it would be nice to be at the boardwalk or out on a long pier watching the waves roll in.

From the NHC's Update at 8 AM

"A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM."






Do you remember the 21st night of september?
Love was changing the minds of pretenders
While chasing the clouds away

Our hearts were ringing
In the key that our souls were singing.
As we danced in the night,
Remember how the stars stole the night away

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in september
Ba de ya - never was a cloudy day

My thoughts are with you
Holding hands with your heart to see you
Only blue talk and love,
Remember how we knew love was here to stay

Now december found the love that we shared in september.
Only blue talk and love,
Remember the true love we share today

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in september
Ba de ya - never was a cloudy day

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in september
Ba de ya - golden dreams were shiny days

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Friday In the Tropics Quiet Today, Trouble Tomorrow?



We have a small breather in the tropics today to catch our breath. Those living in areas affected by Ike are still in the clean up and recovery phase of life. Well, the clean up will go on for some time but they are getting a clue this weekend what they will have to do over the next few months and year. Other places further to the East are getting their power back and having boil water orders lifted it seems.

People in Florida are constantly talking on what a "bullet" they missed with Ike and hoping the gun will not be loaded again this season but think it's too early to dream those dreams.

Get some rest this weekend if you live in an area not affected by Ike.

Give money to some relief agency of your choice. Maybe I'll try to post a few good links later today. If you live in the Miami area you can easily drop of clothes you no longer want or wear to agencies collecting to send more than just food to Haiti.

In the tropics there are a few areas that could pop in a few days. The wave going through the leeward islands now may pop when it is a bit further west. There is a weird frontal boundary of some kind off the coast of Florida that I don't trust and have heard more than rumblings of thunder... have heard it could possibly develop close in so it's worth watching.

Just because it looks quiet today does not mean we have a free pass for the rest of the week or month because Ike hit... just the opposite, it's the peak of the season and things will start spinning again.

So, if you have been hitting the hurricane supplies this week while watching the stork market with frazzled nerves you better head back to the food market, check out some sales and restock your hurricane supplies!

Good Shabbos, be well and now is a good time to give thanks you are alive and many of the most valuable things in life are free such as love, nature, flowers, butterflies and the quiet beautiful sea.

Besos Bobbi

As Texas Recovers From Ike - A Look Back to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane



This image above is the real bridge to nowhere as the Great Hurricane of 1926 blew away the rest of the Haulover Bridge and cut Miami Beach off into the island that it really is when the storm surge from the strong Category 4 washed the rest of the bridge away.


Today seems to be the anniversary of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. I say "seems to be" because with all of the attention on the recovery and reflection on Ike and the forecasting done on that storm by the powers that be I have almost forgotten what day it is..

It's been a blur of emails and images sent back and forth discussing Ike and hours spent watching live TV on Houston channels.

But... time moves on and Ike is almost a week ago yet the 1926 Hurricane that hit Miami was over 82 years ago tonight.

A category 4 hurricane like that hitting Miami today on the same path taking out both Miami and Ft. Lauderdale would be an economic nightmare and with the economy the way it is this week it makes me wonder if the insurance companies involved could pay out on such claims.

The 26 Hurricane came in at downtown Miami after ravaging Miami Beach and moved across the whole of the metropolitan area covering an area from Miami Shores, North Miami Beach, Hollywood Beach and Ft. Lauderdale. It moved across Hialeah and Coral Gables and out into the Everglades and kept on going making landfall a second time as most big Miami Hurricanes do and slammed into the whole of the Gulf Coast by hitting the Mobile/Gulfport and New Orleans area. Had the 26 Hurricane re-intensified over the Gulf the second landfall would have been as bad if not worse than the Miami hit.



I'm tired. It's been a long week for me. Can't wait for Shabbos tomorrow to take a break and rest a bit.

This is one of my favorite hurricanes to talk about or write about and yet tonight I find myself too tired to give it the attention it deserves. So, I will post some pics and some links and let others tell you about what was a strong hit by a slow moving, very wet storm with a very large eye that took 45 minutes to pass at daybreak. Because of the size of the eye and the timing people with little knowledge of hurricanes had no idea that they had not passed through a dark night of the storm and rushed out to find loved ones in other parts of the city and to check on their businesses as well. When the second side of the eye hit..known in records from that day as the "Second Storm" hit.. people were washed off causeways into watery graves or had trees fall and crash down on their Model T Fords while they tried to make their way down cluttered roadways looking for relatives they could not call or contact to make sure they were alive.

People left their homes and drove off to start the process of search and recovery only to find out the storm had not passed but was merely taking an intermission of sorts and instead of the theater dimming the lights a few times to let patrons know it was time to return to their seats before the next act people were caught unaware and left to the elements trying to get back to their home or to find some safety in the strong, backside of the storm.

Incredible accounts are written such of trying to drive down Ponce De Leon while trees fell across the paths of vehicles and many a loved one was killed in that vicious backside of the storm.. known then as the "Second Storm"..

Night was not over and the sky became as dark as night for a second time. The debris in the Miami River blown and moved there by the first storm surge tossed everything back the other way.

A policeman helped a woman stuck on the entrance to the County Causeway (now McArthur) from the Miami Beach side deliver a baby when she went into labor during the storm and then they took refuge at the Flamingo Hotel. People driving across the causeway on their way to Miami after the "First Storm" were blown off the causeway and died somewhere in Biscayne Bay. My Uncle told me of a story of the first half of the storm spent in a funeral home high up on a small hall with other families near the Miami River. After the sun came up and the storm stopped someone insisted on going to their store and checking on it and friends downtown. Old timers begged them to stay and wait to be sure the storm was over but they refused and a small caravan of cars left towards the Downtown District. The people in the last cars watched as the first few cars trying to get across the bridge were blown off and into the river below. People got out on foot, leaving their cars behind and made their way back to the funeral home crawling on their knees at times, hiding from the wind to collapse inside with news of what had transpired on the entrance to the bridge crossing the river.

Miami was young then, it had just turned a mere 30 years old but had suddenly grown up during the Hurricane and it faced it's own mortality in ways.

After the Miami Hurricane people rebuilt, some left, most stayed and they hunkered down and rebuilt Miami slowly to be a stronger, better city dedicated to it's future not just another boom time town.

IF a strong Category 4 Hurricane was to take that same path today... not sure how long it would take to rebuild the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area but it would be similar to Katrina after New Orleans. Rebuilding Galveston is easier after a strong 2 than rebuilding a major metropolitan area after a strong 4 and the area of strong hurricane force winds in the 1926 storm was much bigger than that in Ike.

Ike was large for overall cloud cover but it's central core of strongest winds was small.

Andrew was small.

The 1926 Hurricane had a massive core that took out a swatch ... no a chunk of SE Florida the likes of which we have not seen since and hope never to see again.

A great comparison Dr. Chris Landsea gave a few years back is posted below that i was lucky enough to see him give while listening to Dr. Paul George talk about the 1926 Hurricane. When you take the 1926 hurricane and place it over South Florida it eclipses Andrew in size.

We can only imagine what would have happened had Hurricane Andrew had crashed onshore on Miami Beach at the Fountainbleau Hotel and moved west across Downtown Miami, Overtown, Little Havana and west into it's heart and soul of bedroom suburbs where Miamians live. The financial district would be destroyed as would the homes of the people who work and commute and make this city the great beautiful city it is today.

Read and think and imagine....

Sweet dreams... sweet tropical dreams.

Bobbi
ps... there is a wave in the Carib that could develop this weekend into a named storm. Possibly. We'll see... could happen. September Remember...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/herald/index.html


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/loader.php?path=events/1926hurricane/Miami_hurricane

http://www.hurricanedisasterslive.com/GREAT-MIAMI-HURRICANE-1926.html

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Update Video on Galveston.. Some Good News

Taking a sort of break to sift through all the post Ike Coverage. I have a lot of thoughts and annoyed at the way a lot of things have been handled but will write on them when I have more time and more facts.

1.. The way the "look and leave" program was run.

2.. The refusal to let people back into areas where there is not bad damage to protect their property. Let them sign a "enter at your own risk" paper and move on.

3.. The ridiculousness of saying anyone staying on Galveston Island faces certain death. Parts of Galveston were safe just as parts of Miami Beach would be safe though bad, bad, bad night and day of hurricane hell but they would not be Gone With the Wind by a strong Cat 2.

Video of Galveston that shows thankfully not all of it has been blown away or destroyed and what the media isn't showing as it sells more pictures to show the destruction.

Good news.. windows not boarded up made with hurricane glass.. not broken, suffered little damage.

http://www.click2houston.com/video/17480828/index.html

I'll be back with more later when I have time.

Catching up with life before the next assault from the Tropics.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... What this shows us is the necessity of a sea wall.. had Bolivar Peninsula have had a sea wall they may have been saved much of the tragic devastation.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Gov. Crist Threatens to Prosecute Anyone Price Gouging

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2008

“TO REPORT SUSPECTED CASES OF PRICE GOUGING, PLEASE CALL 1-800-HELP-FLA or 1-866-966-7226.”

CONTACT: GOVERNOR’S PRESS OFFICE (850) 488-5394

Statement by GOVERNOR CHARLIE CRIST Regarding Florida’s Fuel Supply and Gas Prices

The people of Texas are in our prayers, and we stand ready to help them in the recovery efforts following the storm. Last evening, I reached out to Governor Perry to let him know that Floridians are prepared to assist our neighbors in their time of need.

“It is important for the people of Florida to know that our state currently has an adequate fuel supply. Major fuel companies continue to deliver millions of gallons of gasoline and diesel to retailers and communities across the state. In addition, we are coordinating with the petroleum industry and representatives from the Florida Petroleum Council and Florida Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association to ensure that there is fuel to meet current consumer needs.

“Despite this fact, there are confirmed reports of gas stations charging more than five dollars a gallon, which can only be described as unconscionable. Raising rates to exorbitant levels like this only causes unnecessary panic and fear. This type of behavior will not be tolerated, and I pledge to work with Attorney General McCollum and Agriculture Commissioner Bronson to ensure swift and appropriate action is taken against all price gougers.

Aerial Video of Bolivar Peninusula



http://www.khou.com/video/news-index.html?nvid=282706

For live feed:
http://www.khou.com

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Ike's Aftermath - Bolivar Peninsula Past, Present and Future??



For those of you who love places by the sea and lighthouses that stand guard over places that whisper names from history with ghosts of legends past will enjoy reading some of the links below to the lighthouse known as Point Bolivar Lighthouse. It stood guard for several years on that part of the Texas coast. Built, taken down during the Civil War as many lighthouses were and then rebuilt. People were said to have survived the 1900 Galveston Hurricane by taking refuge in the tall, strong lighthouse.

Above is a picture from before Ike. Below is a picture from after Ike.



Pictures are few and hard to come by as for some reason the government in charge has not allowed fly overs nor the press to go on the island in any manner to find out how many are alive, how many may have died and what happened during Ike's assault on that once beautiful island. Rumors abound but I do not trade in rumors, rumors run rampant after a Storm and often the truth is harsher than the rumors made up and often not as dramatic.

Time will tell but someone should tell it soon and information should be released to the media and those who own homes there or are friends and family of those who may have stayed or own property there.

It's past we know, it's presents seems to be a watery grave of sorts or just maybe it is in some watery limbo waiting for the next step in it's history though I fear it will be a sad step as much as been lost on Bolivar Peninsula.

Below are some links to blogs and stories about it's history and the people who lived there so that when stories unfold in the press over the next few days it is not just a name on a map linked to Ike but a real, living place where gulls flew and people dined and watched the sunrise and set and enjoyed life before Hurricane Ike roared ashore and covered the peninsula with water where only a part of the lighthouse was left standing.

While all the fears of the country were focused on Galveston and Houston a lesser known bit of paradise took the brunt of Ike's fury.

With sadness... as I fear many souls may have been lost on this once beautiful place.

Rumors also say that there has been a forced evacuation immediately of any survivors but I'm not sure how they are supposed to evacuate unless the government is doing so ... though not sure if this is true so here is the link..we will know soon.

http://jakeabby.com/cb/vacate.php

A very nice blog from a visit there a while back. Beautiful pictures of what is now under water or is slowly rising back from the Gulf of Mexico.

http://barb-bil.blogspot.com/2007/11/galveston-bolivar-peninsula-adding.html

http://www.bolivarpeninsula.com

Click on history for an intriguing history for this beautiful spot including pirates and cattle ranchers.

An excerpt from the history is below:

"According to legend, Jean Laffite's entire pirate crew from Galveston Island sometimes held parties on the peninsula. At least one former pirate, Laffite's cabin boy, Charles Cronea, made his home there at Highland, where he is buried."

Some information on the lighthouse above from the website posted. "Bolivar's prestigious lighthouse towering almost one hundred and twenty feet high was constructed in 1872 and guided seafarers for over six decades until eventually being replaced in 1933 by the South Jetty lights in Galveston. During the devastating 1900 Hurricane that claimed over 10,000 lives along the Texas Gulf Coast, their were 125 residents of Bolivar Peninsula that sought refuge and survived the storm in the structure. Fifteen years later during another deadly hurricane the lighthouse saved sixty more lives. This is one of the most famous lighthouses in America and has been featured in movies, documentaries, and been written about in countless publications. It is currently privately owned and not open for public tours."

This was in April, in better times ..read and get a feel for what life was like on the peninsular before Ike covered it with water and washed away all that we knew.

http://bolivarpeninsula.blogspot.com/2008_04_01_archive.html

Stories of other hurricanes that hit this area and threatened it's future.

http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/BB/rrb6.html

http://www.crystalbeach.com/light.htm

One of many tragic stories from Ike but perhaps the most tragic and long lasting memory we will have aside from high gas prices and rebuilding downtown Houston and the still flooded bayous of Louisiana and places like Beaumont who have to have their electric grid rebuilt most likely... but will any be as poignant as what will be revealed from Bolivar Peninsula?

Nite... Bobbi..

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Ike.. A Storm As Big As Texas... Some thoughts.

This was an amazing storm. Not a storm on par with the Great 1900 Galveston Hurricane but one of the bigger ones we've seen in a while.

It may not have been a Category 5 but Ike was a storm as big as Texas. Except that Ike spared parts of Texas and took on a good part of Louisiana before moving north into Oklahoma and Arkansas where he is still spinning tonight as a Tropical Storm.



One of the largest storms to hit the Texas/Louisiana border in years and the damage is so widespread it is hard to follow it all.

The boat, by the way ... made it. Rode out the storm and the people survived. Galveston survived and though battered it will be rebuilt as time goes by.

Time is the big issue here. And, while the clean up goes on garbage piles high and it has to be hauled out and then they go through the Insurance Dance of adjusters and claims and eventually figuring out who to rebuild, etc.. etc.. etc it goes on for days, months.. over a year. I know.. Miami danced that dance after Wilma.

Damage out of Beaumont looks very much like the damage Miami had with trees down, power poles down and power out and homes damaged from trees falling on them, signs down and life is not normal. And, it won't be normal for a while.

In Cameron Bay way to the East of Galveston they are STILL having problems with flooding and when the wind shifted in Galveston and the water receded it did not recede in Cameron Bay.

Surfside Beach, Texas really got trashed. Well, first it got flooded and then it got trashed as the flotsam and jetsam floated around in wild surf and.. that's as plain as I can say it.

Personally... I'm annoyed with the overkill hype on this storm that was clearly NOT a Category 4 and Galveston is NOT Nola and they were never going to have the type of flooding and damage that Nola had because the levees failed.

Putting out official notices that "anyone staying on Galveston Island faces certain death" was hype on the level of William Randolph Hearst. I'm sorry but anyone staying on the island COULD face certain death but not everyone staying and the locals knew that. If TWC and CNN and others were leaving their news crews at the same hotel that the government employees were staying then it was obvious they were not expecting to face certain death. The news studios value their equipment and trucks way more than that and would never take such risks.

So people stayed. Some left. Some stayed. I am sure they all had their reasons. Those who left probably will not leave next time as fast and many who didn't leave will leave next time. So easy to second guess these things. And, yes those kids partying at the Poop Deck Bar are probably all alive and have one heck of a hangover though I doubt the Poop Deck survived but not sure.

They say God watches out for fools and drinks ... and I suppose during this storm he worked overtime.

One of the bigger stories during the storm was worrying over a man who refused to leave his home and decided to ride out the storm. I'm glad to tell you he is alive and well or as well as he can be considering his age and the amount of beer and chewing tobacco he seems to consume. He'll probably be an urban legend for those who feel that a good beer can get you through any natural disaster.



The one thing I will say for Ray Wilkenson is he didn't suggest anyone else do it he just said clearly he was doing it and in one of the best lines I've heard in a while "I didn't say I had all my marbles." Nope, he didn't but that is a man who knows himself well. Article below.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gI_OOvCWByQ96a2TrHdDJX8349vgD93621200

Ray Wilkinson, 67 who insisted on staying behind and riding out the storm in Surfside Beach, Texas is quoted as saying:

"I consider myself to be stupid," Wilkinson, 67, spat through a thick, tobacco-stained beard. "I'm just tired of running from these things. If it's going to get you, it's going to get you"

Those dealing with frustration on their inability to get back to their homes until the government tells them it is safe to return probably wish they stayed behind to look through their water logged photos, find family heirlooms and clean up before more damage from the elements set in. Not sure that it helps for local authorities to keep locals from going back and though I understand why they do it .. I also understand that it is one of the reasons people refuse to leave ... because it takes so long to get back in and as much as they hate evacuating they don't want to wait in long lines waiting to get back in to an area that is often safe enough for locals with valid IDs to be allowed back in.

For those who stayed.. loss of power and loss of water pressure is a problem. Bug spray and staying put and not wandering around is a priority. There are snakes in standing water and other debris that could cause more problems.

I remember after Andrew. People weren't allowed back on Miami Beach. My neighbor was allowed in because he had a press pass. There was no real danger, we walked around and took a drive. Talked to neighbors who stayed or who were smart enough to realize they could get around the blockade on the Julia Tuttle by driving over Sunny Isles Causeway and down Collins. Seems the police figured everyone would use the McArthur or the Venetian Causeway. Broad Causeway wasn't closed either when my father found his way back across it.

There is a fine line between protecting the public and government interfering with people's private needs to go home and sift through their valuables and make repairs. I can see both sides but I do feel the way they handle these events is part of the problem not part of the solution.

As for other areas besides Galveston...

This video shows downtown Houston. Damage much like Miami and Ft. Lauderdale witnessed in Wilma. Well not the flooding thankfully but the windows blown out in downtown buildings. We need to learn how to lessen the damage from Cat 2 Hurricanes as that is what this was and we never seem to learn and are always surprised by how bad it is as we expect damage like this to be from a stronger storm. We seem to underestimate the damage from a Category 2. Maybe in the future we won't.



The storm surge at Galveston was 13 and a half feet by the way..NOT 20 feet. Thankfully... the sea wall held and though a bit battered it did protect the island of Galveston.

Here are some articles and links.

Know that there has been substantial damage in downtown Houston and behind those blown out windows are offices and cubby holes that have been destroyed and re-decorated and much of the paperwork has been blown out or down onto the streets or simply blown away with the wind. This is a big hit for Houston and it will take a long time to put downtown Houston back together again.

My brother in Greece listened to storm coverage and told me that Neil Frank did an awesome job talking to people through the storm. I am sure he did.. he's always been one of the biggest hurricane heroes around. There is no one like him. Houston was lucky to have him. Miami's loss was their gain.

As for me.. I am going to sit and listen a bit while doing other things to local coverage via the wonderful Internet.

http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html (I'm watching the Fox channel right now, amazing coverage. Find the one you like and mute the others.)

Be well, stay safe and hoping everyone I am friends with made it through the storm safely.

Give thanks that as big and bad as Ike was that he was not a more powerful storm!
Size isn't everything, intensity is!

Good Night, Bobbi ;)

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080913/NEWS01/80913075/1002

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=8989226&nav=0nqxHpbz

http://www.kplctv.com/

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/ike-boyle-texas-2156856-firefighters-hurricane

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94597681

Friday, September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Now 110 Winds

Hurricane Ike has strengthened to 110 mph winds and could intensify a little more before landfall but it has not yet hit Cat 3.. there is time but the infamous window is closing.

His eye is not completely closed off and has gone through several recent changes that account probably for the stronger winds. The outer wall fell away and the inner wall took over making it look as if it is baking up away from landfall but in fact it is moving between wnw and nw near 13 mph.

I wanted to post this link for a good blog from ABC13 in Houston. People are posting information on it and you really get the feel for what Ike is like in the Greater Houston area.

http://ktrk.typepad.com/abc13/

They are doing a great job, as are most the channels but at some point you have to pick one channel and go with it.

Galveston doesn't have the only seawall, here is a story about a seawall in Beaumont Texas that could be threatened.

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/local/threat_to_port_arthur_s_seawall_gives_residents__officials_pause_09-12-2008.html

Perhaps at 8 PM the storm will be upgraded. Time will tell and the NHC will publish it's story.

Your source for the bottom line on Ike.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Gotta go.. Good Shabbos and pray for the best not the worst to happen.
If he comes in during low tide that would be a blessing of sorts, a small one.

Besos Bobbi

Ike

Freighter Antalina Stuck In the Storm While Trying to Evacuate the Port... Newslinks as Ike Makes Landfall



This is a picture of the 580 foot freighter that was trying to evacuate the Port of Houston when their engine failed and they became one of the first early stories of possible tragedy from Hurricane Ike.

The coast guard sent out a chopper to try and rescue them but the winds got too strong. 80 knot winds and they were 20 minutes from the ship and could not get to it.... so the Antalina is stranded in 20 to 30 foot seas. 22 crew members riding out the storm on the ship talking to the Coast Guard and hopefully they will make it through the storm.

Watch continuing coverage:

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042

Good local coverage in the link above. Story on Vinces's Bayou..one of many that flow into the ship channel that is beginning to flood.

Fire on Galveston Island. Boat storage and repair company on fire.. fire department is unable to get in there. Concern on diesel supplies stored there.

http://www.khou.com/

Also video of Neil Frank doing an update for those who remember Neil well..

http://www.khou.com/video/topstories-index.html?nvid=282028

Live Online: http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes

http://www.shipphotos.co.uk/pages/antalina.htm

http://www.topix.com/city/cameron-la

http://www.klfy.com/

Video of flooding in Cameron Parish:

http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=8999521

Ike... about to make land:

Galveston Island Expects a 20 Foot Storm Surge From Ike and Videos to Watch and Think Upon

Before a hurricane hits animals act strangely, dogs bark, birds fly into store front windows and human beings dress up as bears for whatever reason they had and wander in hot bear suits along the beach trying to get on TV. I imagine his father probably held up signs at football games that said John 3:16 or maybe he lost a bet and is wearing a bear suit and not the Hurricane City infamous Chicken Suit.



Well... maybe if Mr. Bear wants to let me know why he is dancing in the waves I would love to know... imagine many a curious mind would like to know.

Hey listen.. there isn't much I can add today as the coverage on the TV across America is nonstop and the advisories just keep coming. I want to use the blog today to show and explain what Galveston is and what will be lost. The personal side of the story with a little history thrown in. The news shows great videos but what is Galveston? What does it smell like? What does it look like? Why is it different from Miami Beach or Cocoa Beach or Wrightsville Beach? That I can show you and some thoughts while I watch the coverage on TV while taking a break from cooking for shabbos and resting from work. I don't need to show a pic of Ike as he is on everyone's TV screen in the lower left corner spinning towards landfall.

As for Geraldo Rivera he is covering the storm and getting sloshed by waves.



Amusing. It has happened to me taking pics of Floyd. Happens fast, I tossed the camera over my head onto sand got the shot but had slammed and covered in course sand. Took me days to wash off the sand, showers and showers and I still found sand from Floyd somewhere on my body.

The reality is that when the waves come in they have tremendous force. They surprise you as they are not that high yet but they are wildly strong and they can knock you down fast.

Good map of Galveston and info on the city itself:

http://galveston-crystalbeach.alicedonahue.com/CityInformation.aspx



People love the ocean. Every time I go to the beach and there is a storm nearby I realize how fragile they are and how it could all be changed and rearranged by one strong storm. Whether it's Miami Beach on 17th Street or 41st Street or further up on Hollywood Beach where you can walk on the boardwalk, have a coffee or a beer or an ice cream cone and watch people skating by or old couples holding hands walking along enjoying the night.

I went swimming at Hollywood Beach a few weeks back with my boyfriend while he was in town and Hanna danced nearby. I think it was Hanna..getting confused these days. Well he swam, I tried to stay on my feet in water not even up to my thighs. It was fun, a lot of fun but it wasn't a storm surge of 15 or 20 feet..it was just choppy water from a passing storm.

This is a huge storm and it's affects are being felt in Florida along the NW coast, Alabama and Mississippi far from any possible landfall.

For those of you far from landfall who enjoy shelling and wandering the beach looking for driftwood or shells... you will have a great time next week. This is from Gulf Shores suffering strong surf and beach erosion from Ike far away:




Some good video of Galveston in better days to better understand why people live there and travel there for miles away for a weekend by the shore.



Here's an up close look at those homes you wish you could rent for a week for an anniversary or honeymoon or just to get away.



This is what the lure of the sea is all about and that lure is always calling me.

Great video of Galveston Beach on a quiet day... must watch to appreciate the differences from what you are seeing on TV today. One of the best online videos I've seen in a while.



Today... Galveston Beach is not filled with gentle waves nor pelicans flying or couples holding hands and kissing or sandpipers darting in and out of the waves.

Today a Category 2 Hurricane is moving towards that beautiful beach. It will rip and pound it with waves on top of a storm surge and structures will fail and homes and lives will be shattered but when the clean up is done, when the storm is gone, when homes are rebuilt or abandoned... people will return to the sea to enjoy it's charm, it's beauty and watch the waves glisten on the sand and feel that warm, hot sand under your feet as you walk in gentle rippling waves... after the storm.

Just a note here.. a funky sort of political comment I want to make and that both leaders here politically are women... both the Mayor of Galveston Lyda Ann Thomas and the Senator of Texas Kay Bailey Hutchinson are women.





http://www.senate.gov/~hutchison/

Good link for Hurricane Ike info for Houston.

http://www.senate.gov/~hutchison/HurricaneIke.html
Just an interesting note I thought..in this world where everything is connected in some way...

Stay safe... hunker down, run from the water and hide from the wind and may you all be safe after the storm passes.

As for me... my daughter is home and okay, kidney stones most likely. My younger daughter is okay... in Boca for Shabbos and I'm going to go make babaganush and put up cholent.

My prayers for everyone that this is not a repeat of the 1900 Galveston storm.



Video courtesy of Thomas Edison no less.

Understand I am NOT saying this storm is JUST a Galveston event but people do love Galveston and it will take the brunt of Ike it seems. My brother Jay lived in Houston once, he loved Galveston. It has that charm like all beautiful old cities such as Key West and San Francisco and is a vacation favorite for most people who want to visit the sea.

I hope some day to be able to visit it. I never have.. never went that far away from I-10 on trips back and forth from Miami to LA. But, I have spent time in Rice Country, Low Country in New Iberia and other places nearby and I love that part of the country. So... we focus on Galveston but all along the Texas coast there are people going through the same fears, same worries and will suffer the same devastation there just won't be news crews parked there covering the story. Like Waveland in Mississippi that got washed away in Katrina yet the reporters were in Nola and Gulfport..but the story is there whether a reporter covers it or not.

One last thing to say here and pass along for anyone who stayed on Galveston Island or other similar barrier islands in Ike's path..

Advice learned from Hurricane Katrina...

If you decide to stay on Galveston Island please grab a marker and write your social security on your arm so that people will be able to identify your body and notify your next of kin.

Hard to laugh off advice like that...

The world is praying the death toll will be low. I will be watching and praying and hoping one day to see Galveston Beach myself after the storm has passed. There are so many beautiful places to see in this big beautiful world.

Good Shabbos Bobbi

Ike Floods Galveston Beach - Bahama Blob Brewing This Weekend For Florida?



I have been asked by so many people who went on to look at Ike and hit the wrong floater and said, "WHATS THAT?" concerning the blob to the east of Florida. It does exist. The NHC is able to track two things at the same time and we are watching it. If it develops into a Depression advisories will begin and it's track is indeed towards Florida. But..it is supposed to be weak and whether it is from Josie or a different wave, by whatever name they name it.. if they name it... we will hear all about it even if CNN is covering Ike.. the local channels will cover both.

That said... Massive story and am sure many wanted to stay to witness history, sure it won't live up to it's hype and press releases and took that chance if their homes were built well and not on the beach. Many can survive there this storm depending where they live but there will be much damage. Safest to leave... this is not the same set up as Katrina and Galveston is an low, lying island but it is not a bowl like the areas that flooded in Katrina in Nola.

Mesmerizing to watch ... I'm watching.

I am also watching Ike's crescent shaped eye and trying to figure out how it is supposed to hit "possibly a Category 3 status" but suppose anything is possible.



Keep watching, I am... we are witnessing history in the making.. not on the level of the Great 1900 storm but on a massive geographic scale that is not getting coverage because we all want to see Galveston... honest, it stirs the mind with visions of historical splendor and destruction.

Be well and safe.. Bobbi

13 million people in 142 counties are supposed to be affected as Ike comes onshore according to just released US Census figures.. mind boggling.

Live Feeds From Galveston ..

Ike 100mph, wnw at 12 mph... turn towards NW expected at some time down the line.

Approaching Galveston.

IF you live anywhere in a low lying area in Galveston or anywhere from Port Arthur to Cameron Bay please leave and follow evac orders.

Better safe than sorry. True, you will probably live if you are safe but you just never know.. what if Ike finally ramps up?

He probably won't. But you have nothing to lose and you can't say that for staying in a low lying area.

Good feeds ..choose one and watch if you have high speed.

I'll post this afternoon.

http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

Thursday, September 11, 2008

11PM Info on Ike - Still 100 MPH.

The storm is not intensifying currently. It's winds are still 100mph and they are getting readings from Barometric Pressure that isn't dropping. The storm could intensify as there is moisture streaming in from the SW across Mexico from the Pacific that is juicing up the atmosphere with more tropical moisture that could give Ike another outflow channel. However shear is an issue and both factors may cancel each other out.

CNN sent out a warning that anyone staying on Galveston Island would be facing "certain death" ... um... think that's an overstatement and yes they got it from the weather services warnings but... the track is shifting slowly to the EAST and he is NOT a Cat 4 or 5 so it annoys me a bit that report was given out.

As everyone is watching Galveston no one is talking about the possibility that SW Louisiana WILL probably get hurricane force and for sure tropical storm force winds.

"Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours...with a turn to the northwest expected to begin late Friday."

Well... this is from the 11 PM and if he is going to want to turn NW..wouldn't we be worrying about the cities to the east of Houston not just the west of it?

Look at Skeetobite's drawing... it's been moved EAST.

What if he starts to turn before landfall? This was ALWAYS on the plate..



Also.. note he is supposed to move inland faster than a speeding bullet... he will cause misery over a large area ...

Great blog with beautiful pictures. Main page has a great pic for 911.. which was today and should be remembered always.

http://www.sherripatterson.blogspot.com/

Heroes that are rarely recognized for what they do...there is a link to a video on hurricane hunters that is very worth watching!

Great pics today on this awesome pic on this awesome blog of 911 and NYC.


Painting is just another way of keeping a diary...: Untold Bravery...the Hurricane Hunters

And, want to end with something Jim always says about Hurricanes and Tropical Weather..they are a given to cause great disaster and terrorize Americans every hurricane season... we need to prepare for them the way we do any other instrument of terror and possible devastation.

Prayers for those who lost loved ones in 911.

Nite... stay safe.. Bobbi