A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Gustav - Pressure Rises.. Pray it's a Good Sign
Probably the best visual translation of the NHC's cone of what area might be most affected by Gustav..thank you Skeetobite..
Lightning in the eyewall, interesting observation made on TWC. Though not uncommon it is a good observation.
Reports from the hurricane recon plane have shown a leveling off of pressure and a few slight rises in pressure though that may be a temporary change and not long lasting. Also, the eye wall has some strange abnormalities compared to most storms of this intensity. And, yet.. it seems to work for Gustav.
From recent advisory from NHC:
"Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Gustav would reach the northern Gulf Coast during the daylight hours tomorrow. A decrease in forward speed is expected to occur on Tuesday."
15,000 people have thankfully left New Orleans and a tremendous amount of people in the Gulf Coast beyond any figures I have that have thankfully evacuated.
115 mph NW 17
This storm has just made a beeline for this area as if it had been pre-programmed from the start. It's like some interactive video game where someone put in the cords and it refuses to budge. The forecasted track shows it might slow down and veer just a bit to the left but that's a maybe... and nothing is a lock.
Stay safe is all I can say and hope that the prayers of many have helped in some way to keep this storm from intensifying.
Flooding inland will be huge and it's impact will be huge as well so do not think that just the coastline will suffer the effects from Gustav. The area to the west of Nola is low lying rice country, bayou... pray it hits an area lightly populated and does the least damage as possible.
As for the impact on oil.. only time will tell on this one. So many oil refineries in it's path... might be a problem.. you think?
The best thing this storm can do is pick a point and move in fast vs slowly edging along the coastline as the cone shows a possibility.
As for Hanna.. she has begun a slow intensification process tonight. She might not look like much but her convection is centered and deepening. Her models are all over the place. This storm needs a shrink. Do not rely on any path for a day or so when it finds its grove and really ramps up and develops into something more than messy convection and a misplaced center. That might be happening tonight.. maybe. I think the ULL that was bothering Hanna has finally died and she might be flying on her own.
As for Invest 97.. it's near depression status far to the east near Africa.
An excellent job of evacuation and early warning by the governments involved and the National Hurricane Center.
Prayers for everyone.
Keep watching to see if the pressure rises indicate that he is not going to get any stronger and it isn't some other process.
Thankfully, we live in a world where we can be warned and issued watches and given time to prepare, evacuate or hunker down and that is a world away from towns that were wiped off the map in this area in the 1700s and 1800s. We have come a long way in hurricane warnings and preparation. We have much to learn but we should all stop and give thanks for how much we know and the excellent job that the NHC does in helping us stay alive and prepare properly for these catastrophic events.
Night.. all my prayers... Bobbi
Bonus pic... what is next to deal with after the landfall and aftermath of Gustav. Hanna...
Gustav Sunday Morning August 31st, 2008 Making a Bee Line for Some Town in the Cone..
The picture above is traffic out of New Orleans. Webcam link shown below but sort of tells the whole story.
This is the track of Gustav but the incomparable Skeetobite. If you are within those circles pay close attention of get out if you are in an evacuation area.
Very short on time here.
This is Gustav at 9:30 AM, Sunday morning.
Wanted to say a few things fast.
First off the NHC is doing the most bang up job I have seen in ages. They have been very on the money this year on track as well as doing a pretty good job with intensity forecasting. Listen to them and if you really want to know what is going on try and cut your teeth on the Discussion issued a few minutes after the basic advisory. Good graphics, info and everything you need all at the place where the buck stops first, last and always.
And his track is just on schedule, moving fast the way they said she would. A beeline to the NW the whole way in. A small chance of him slowing down just before the end zone where he may pull to the west. However, he may not so everyone within the cone should pay close attention.
PAY ATTENTION TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THEIR FORECAST DO NOT OBSESS ON THE MEDIA COVERAGE. THE MEDIA WILL TAKE GREAT SHOTS FROM FAMOUS PLACES IN NEW ORLEANS BUT THEY ARE NOT OUT THERE COVERING ALL THOSE SMALL BAYOU TOWNS ON EITHER SIDE THAT MAY TAKE THE BRUNT OF GUSTAV. SO... WATCH THE CONE, DON'T WATCH THE REPORTER WHO IS ONE OF THE ONLY PEOPLE ON CANAL STREET TAKING A SHOT FOR THE 11 PM NEWS... THIS IS NOT A LOCK ON NOLA, IT IS A LOCK ON SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CONE.
I am not saying this won't hit New Orleans... I am saying people become glued to the TV set staring at media coverage which sticks with famous, big cities within the cone.
And... the flooding issue with this storm may be further inland and not in the New Orleans Basin. He is progged to slow down and meander a bit once inland between the Louisiana coastline and Oklahoma and Texas and he will dump huge, massive amounts of tropical rain that became entrained in his tropical envelope that surrounds the eye from way back when he was in Jamaica and Haiti. Raindrops caught up in a fury of centrifugal force being carried thousands of miles away from where it first got caught up in the storm. I am taking a few liberties here but you get the idea. This is a West Indies Cyclone carrying tropical moisture up into the heartland of this country. And..there will be flooding far inland.
Places like Morgan City and New Orleans take the brunt of storm surge but the storm keeps moving inland.
This has happened over and over since time began or the time line we know and understand began.
August brings hurricanes to La and they keep coming through September. And, this year is not over. This may not be a one hit wonder. It's a busy hurricane season with landfalling storms and more may landfall so if you miss this one don't eat up your hurricane supplies and keep watching the tropics.
Some tidbits, some pictures and that's it for this morning from me. Read more at www.flhurricane.com and www.hurricanecity.com or storm2k or any of the online message boards but stick with the NHC for the bottom line please. People love to talk online and mention every wobble but we are just talking, discussing.. the NHC is in charge.
August is prime time for Hurricanes in Louisiana
They've been hitting since forever..way before Katrina. Here's a look into an unforgettable hurricane that affected this region over 150 years ago.
A few good links. Here's the highways in the area, you get the feeling for some places that look like ghost towns and others where people are sitting in traffic out of town. Also... a good site for info.
As for me.. I have weather. I may get dressed at the party place or take my hair stuff with me. Have a feeling everyone is going to look like well dressed ducks trying to get into the hall but they will be thankful that is all they are getting. We had a tornado warning earlier with a tornado spotted just west of me. Squalls will be hitting Florida all day, some stronger than others and Florida will say a prayer of thanks we did not get more and prayers for our tropical friends in Louisiana and places around the Gulf of Mexico in Gustav's path.
As for Hanna..she is a real bitch to forecast. Models take her in every direction. One school of thought takes her SW and then back to the WNW or NW towards land, another thought takes her into a big loop and then swings her up towards the Carolinas and New York. Another school of thought keeps her out there as a permanent tropical low. Does this sound familiar? Yes, it does. This is 2008, the year of weak, funky steering currents and landfalling storms. Enough to make you lose your hair, have it turn gray or take up wearing a wig.
Not an easy storm to forecast and though there may be a lot of Chana's coming to this Bar Mitzvah Hanna is not and not going to seriously think on Hanna for a few days. But know I have heard many in high places say that once Hanna gets her act together she may be a much stronger hurricane than anyone expects and sort of sneak up on some city watching the aftermath coverage of Gustav. But, until it does crank up and does something we will watch Gustav but do not take your eye off her if you live in the area of Florida or the Carolinas, Georgia might be exempt. Teasing.. no one is exempt right now on the SE or Eastern Coastline.
Me thinking Hanna may be a big drama queen and she is waiting for Gustav to get going and doing his thing so down the line we have her complete attention.
Have a safe day where ever you live or are evacuating to and may your world be there when you get back because somewhere within that cone Gustav is going to rock someone's world.
Besos Bobbi Ps.. the only good thing I can say is she has been suffering from some shear but think it's light and might not continue and don't watch short term changes in her appearance and stick with the NHC and their up to the minute updates.
Dangerous Gustav Races Across Cuba and Heads for the Gulf Coast
You want a sense for what people are going through all across the part of the Gulf Coast that is under the gun?
Here's a post from a regular poster on www.hurricanecity.com message board. He's evacuating. He is writing one last post before getting out and the reality settles in to all of us what our friends are going through.
And, this scene is being played out all across the Gulf Coast as people with friends on line and off send out messages they are leaving. In the morning, thousands of people will be texting to family in friends short messages that say things like "leaving now" or "in car packed up, leaving" to let their siblings far away in Kansas and New York know they are in the car.. leaving. In this world we live in today we no longer call. My kids text me when they are "boarding" and when the "landed" and that is how we stay in touch. On cellphones, on blackberries and sidekicks. A nation of people electronically playing telephone tag with short messages staying in touch silently with just the beep of a ring tone letting you know Sarah or Sharon has sent you a text message.
Notes back and forth on cellphones across America as loved ones pack up and head north away from the coastlines on this one road rarely traveled on a Labor Day Weekend.
"Stay Safe!" "Call when you get there" "Drive Safe" "LoveU" "LoveU2"
For those not evacuating there are millions of text messages for people buying food, boarding up.
"get more diapers" "need more wood" "need more nails" "more AA batteries"
This is how we live today. This is the drama going on across the Gulf Coast as people try to figure out what they need, how much they need and whether they should pack it in and just make the trip to Aunt Tillie's in Missouri or find a hotel room a hundred miles or so inland or... take the chance that Gustav will veer left or right and their town will be safe, their home will safe, their world will be there when they get back or Gustav passes safely to the east or west or anyway but their way.
As for Cuba, they have had reported gusts of over 200 mph and you can follow some of the story here:
Works best if you speak or understand Spanish, if not you can look at the pictures and video.
My worries? Gustav has been running East of forecasted track points.
This happens and gets adjusted down the road but any variation from the forecast points becomes a problem for the forecast later. They have adjusted the track a drop to the east but just a drop. Generally, the models pull the storm more to the left and yet the storm misses the projected forecast points a drop to the right.
It's not easy to be a forecaster. You carry the weight of the world on your shoulders and in the discussion you are writing. What you say and how you say it conveys to the people reading it what goes on beyond the short advisory written. TV weathermen, local forecasters, newspaper writers and such read that discussion and check for any nuance or explanation for what is going on.. really going on.
The NHC has been great with Gustav. They called the fast forward motion days ago and it raced fast across Cuba barely losing any steam or intensity. Hot steam, steam heat over land. What a monster! No other way to describe him. Reminds me somehow of Mitch at his height of power. Or Gilbert racing on.
He is going to cross some of the hottest water around when he passes over the Loop current though after that he may hit a patch of cooler water. So, one step up, one down. But, he is so steady right now, moving fast, consistent and aiming for land somewhere from Texas to the Alabama/Florida Coastline as the hurricane watches went up for that entire area. Yes... the middle of the cone shows a specific area, city or spot but do NOT look at that spot... look at the whole cone and remember that cone can move east or west depending on the actual movement of Gustav.
Models can only do so much and the NHC is doing an amazing job of reading the models and translating them and putting together in an excellent forecast trying to warn the people in his path of the dangers of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
Listen to them! Listen to your local NWS and listen your local weather people! Listen to your government official.
One thing I do ask and remind you is that they have your best interests at hand. If you do not live in an area that needs to be evacuated and you have a house with shutters and in good shape then do not do so. And, if you do then do it now. Do not decide at the last minute to try to get out of Dodge and travel roads that are crowded in deteriorating weather. Make a plan, stick to it. Stay safe. Do not panic. IF you are evacuating to Alaska.. please take copies of your important papers with you such as birth certificates, important numbers and any MEDICAL info you will need. And, notify your loved ones.. the older ones who do not text where you will be. Do not forget to make sure Grandma Alice knows where you are as she will be home watching TWC terrified worrying on her little baby grandchild. Even if you are 22 and not a baby.. let people know.
Will see in the morning how Gustav is doing and where he is going. If he has sped up or slowed down and if he has hit Category 4 again.
This is the biggest drama in the world. I mean it. Better than the Olympics and better than political conventions and defintly better than a sitcom. It is life, happening fast and live constantly evolving. A storm like this has more power than an Atomic bomb and it was just dropped on Cuba. News reports are not good and getting worse and will be horrible. Even in Miami far away we will get strong bands of storms that kids out looking for pizza and fun will not be worrying over as they think the storm is far away. Key West and other cities not directly in his path will be affected.
Lastly..the only thing that nags at me is that he crossed the Isle of Youth (Pines) to the right of center.. almost dead on and a bit to the right. Usually, but not always you can tell a lot about GOM Hurricanes by which side of the island they cross. I still think this storm is pulling a drop to the left and I said a drop. By 5am Sunday we will know if it's a wobble or a change in the track. But the forecast has been great til now so.. maybe not.
As for Hanna.. she is a slow mover and I was told that would be more problematic for Florida than if she pulled it together faster. We will see.
As for me.. I am going to bed. Been a long day here, had two big family parties in 24 hours, my nephew was incredible at his Bar Mitzvah. Read and spoke beautifully. Lots of drama going on not worth telling over and too tired. It's windy, it's wet, you can hear gusts of wind rushing through the palm tree next to the house and rattling in the breeze with a whoosh of wind as squalls pass through. Going to go to bed... listen to the wind, check the weather radio and stare at TWC on mute for a while.
Tomorrow morning we have a very big, fancy Breakfast Brunch sort of Bar Mitzvah Party to go to and get everyone to and the weather should be rancid but a whole lot better than what Cuba saw and what the Gulf Coast will see and better than what we may see later in the week from Hanna.
Everyone stay safe.. drive safe, email, call or text your loved ones and watch Gustav carefully because he is going to be one of the biggest, strongest storms you will remember in your life time and his name will be retired along with names like Mitch, Hugo and Camille. Hopefully, somehow he will make landfall as a weaker storm not a stronger one and play out his fury in the Gulf before hitting land. We can only hope, we can always pray.
Nite... my prayers to all of my friends online and off in the affected areas and to all of you out there reading this..
Salty Kisses, High Waves and Sunny Days on Hollywood Beach. Tropical Storm Watch Up for Lower Keys
Incredibly beautiful day in Miami today. Sunny, way too hot with that heavy subsidence feel to the air and wind, a steady growing breeze. Went out and took care of family things and then later went to the beach with my boyfriend. Left the phone and the sidekick in the car and told my brother no I could NOT call my mother one more time and tell her she won't be alone in the hurricane as I was going swimming. I have told her at least 4 times.
The beach was as choppy as I have ever seen it. Steady waves, swells more than wells slamming onto the beach. Foamy even. Never seen it that way without a hurricane much close which leads me to believe that Hanna is much closer to being a hurricane than the current forecast. If this is not a hurricane by 5AM tomorrow I would be shocked. Yes ... there was a pressure gradient but the gradient would not be that strong if there were not two for tango!
Unreal strong flow out there. Never seen waves like that with pea green water and white foam against a soft blue sky with sailboats far off in the distance. Picture perfect.
As for the storms..
Gustav has been upgraded to a hurricane and he will intensify sooner rather than later. The track will begin to be pulled to the right I believe over the next few days. Bit, by bit. Tropical Storm Watch for the Lower Florida Keys. If they thought this was going to pull right they left they wouldn't be worrying on the Florida Keys.. any of them. Well, the winds will be so strong and he will grow in size and that will put Tropical Storm force winds further from his center but trust me on this.. the track will be pulled to the right now left.
Hanna... 50 mph and moving to the WNW at 10. Miami is on the very edge of the cone. Smart move, do not scare people .. "enjoy the weekend and keep a close eye" is the news from Channel 4. Trust me.. I think we are going to get this storm. Something from it. Was a feeling, in the water, sand in every part of my body and my skin covered in salt spray and the poor little pelicans standing on the beach barely flying around.
Gonna get windier there too! Can't wait to go for a walk Saturday night :)
Hollywood Beach... nothing like it.
As for the wave out by Africa... looking good, give it a green light for slow development.
Yup... was a great afternoon at Hollywood Beach. Felt like a kid again :) Looked like one too! And... felt the call of Hanna in the wind and on the waves.
Time to think seriously on Hanna and time to wonder on what surprises Gustav will have for us in his chart.
Well Hanna began to move faster but Gustav is still dragging his feet down in Jamaica land.
That is very, very, very bad. A real Cat 3 very bad. Oh my goodness, maybe a Cat 4 bad!
Seriously, the last thing we need in the Tropical Basin is a slow moving, hurricane moving over very, very, very hot water in an intensification mode.
When I said I thought Gustav would be a Cat 3 Hurricane easily it was because I thought he would be here now however.. I thought he would go w..WNW to get here. I didn't really think that trip to Haiti was going to happen but it did and either way he is still where we thought he would be and moving way too slow over the warmest water in the Tropical Basin.
Where will he go from here? Don't know. I would go with the NHC track obviously as it has been consistent and cautious. However it is a really a very s l o w l y evolving situation with a low over Ohio and a building Bermuda Ridge that has not built in yet and a weak mid-level ridge over Florida and well am sure there is a storm near Alaska and Minnesota that could probably affect this as well. But, this has been a pretty consistent cone give or take 250 miles at the furthest part of the cone. And, it is in line with climo as well as most hurricanes sitting there usually go where the cone shows.. give or take maybe 300 miles I'd say.
There is one more problem here and that is that IF and when it become a Major Hurricane this storm will have a built in high aloft that I think will be bigger and more important than the low in Ohio and the mid level ridge in Florida. Sometimes they just enhance forward motion and keep going in the direction they want to move and ignore subtle steering currents that would affect smaller storms. Other times, they stop, stall and spin. So.. it's far from over especially if it becomes this Category 3 storm over the waters that gave you most of the big scary majors.
It IS a hurricane by now and cannot imagine the NHC won't upgrade this at 11.
Why? Structure, spin. It wound up amazing. I sat here in bad with my lap top and my very young grandson watching the storm. Oddly, it seems I can yell at my kids to GET OUT but it's hard to yell at a visiting 4 year old :( So we showed him how storms spin and get redder and bigger. Then I showed him that little blue area in the middle of the red,
I said, "see that!" And he of course said "What is it?" I said, "It's an eye!" And he laughed and said "why is it an eye" and.... I said, "because he needs to see where he is going!" He laughed. He obviously knows more about weather to believe that one. :)
He asked, "where is it going?" (the 65 Gazillion Dollar Question) And, I said, "hopefully NOT here!"
There you go .. all you need to know about Gustav this morning.
He is going to be bad and he is going to move up into the Gulf and people need to get ready. They don't need to panic. This is not a surprise 1935 Labor Day Hurricane it is a storm that can and should be prepared for. It is not an end of the world scenario or Doomsday Hurricane. It is not Katrina 2. It is a hurricane people should take seriously and prepare for and if you don't get it... hold on to those supplies because there are a lot more out there where this one came from!
So.. no panic!
Make a plan!
Make a back up plan!
And...watch the storm. Watch your local weather people and listen to what the NHC says and enjoy life while you are watching.
And I mean this... my mother is friggin' freakin' out right now over Hanna and driving my brother Ronnie crazy who is in the middle of getting ready for his son's Bar Mitzvah this weekend. Hanna is NOT coming to Miami tomorrow and will not be here for the Bar Mitzvah. My brother has a few of my married kids at his house and/or staying next door at the neighhor's empty house as they are out of town. My son comes in from Iowa later today with his wife and baby who are going to stay at my brothers. And in the middle of this my little 90 pound, perfectly dressed Southern Belle Jewish Mother wants to come over with all her personal belongings and hunker down in his living room to stay safe from Hanna because she is watching the Miami Weather news who are apparently hyping Hanna as much as Gulf of Mexico Stations are hyping Gustav. And, for someone 90 pounds and looking like a model she can be like one big Category 3 pain in the neck for my brother who wants me to explain to her that HANNA IS NOT COMING TOMORROW! Did I mention she wears a hearing aid on occasion when it matches her outfit. I think what they said on the news is that watches and warnings may be posted for Hanna on Monday... and why she needs to hunker down for THREE days before it hits is beyond me. Especially at his house which is crazier than my house right now.
Of course I am writing this locked in the bathroom on a laptop as in the last 5 minutes I have been asked for:
directions to the post office what channel is FOX (my son here is republican) what do I think of the Gov of Alaska? what the Governor of Minnesota? now they want to know where they can rent a boat what words would you put into a google search for boat could I show them on google where the post office is
oh and someone saw on a TV at Saras Pizza that Hanna is coming on Monday
Hanna is going to most likely loop around much like Betsy did and will possibly move over Miami or WPB or the Keys sometime early next week.. mid-week depending on the steering currents which are as said. WEAK
And...not make y'all crazy and to hype a storm that hasn't even formed but in a funnier than anything anyone could make up Ike is probably going to threaten some American City during the week of the Republican Convention!
Ike may be forming just west of Africa... maybe, not sure but it's one strong invest and quikscat found a closed circulation.
So..that's it from Miami Land.. I'm going to brunch with my boyfriend and his father and then am going to enjoy the beauty of Miami on my day off and try not to think on how next Tuesday we could be hunkering down for a storm.
Have I ever mentioned I have always loved Betsy. Great storm. Bad storm but one caught up in weak steering currents and she moved SW and came back and well I have to go now.
No panic! Live in the moment..do NOT lose the next 48 hours of your life in sheer panic. Enjoy the sunshine, the strawberries, the cherries. Go to the beach! Go to a movie. Make lists, buy some supplies.. if not for Gustav or Hanna... you may need them for Ike!
Ps.. if you have Elisheva's number..someone needs that too!
Thought it was worth mentioning that both systems are going 7 mph. Seven. I don't think that's a coincidence as much as whatever is steering one is influencing the steering of the other. Weak, slow steering currents..
Secondly, both storms show models that pull to the left, south of west another words. Several models show Gustav pulling off to the left/west and possibly even going south of west. Hanna has her Betsy style loop or lunge SW.
Strong highs, wherever the weakness develops in those highs is a pathway to hell. And, noticed something tonight that didn't thrill me but will hold off from mentioning it until tomorrow. Hoping after a good night's sleep I won't notice it again.
Also, timing issue has not been settled. Gustav's models pull back from the speeding bullet track they were advertising for the last few days when he gets to the Gulf.
So... had a nice evening tonight. Ran off with my boyfriend and escaped the house and the madness and went out for ice cream in Dania and then took a nice walk on the Hollywood Beach Boardwalk. Beautiful, balmy breeze. Not too hot considering it was 85 at 5pm. Beautiful. You could smell the salt air, the breeze on my face, lifting and tugging at my skirt. Strong.. out of the SE.. ESE maybe. Yup, hurricane weather and high pressure.. But, really it is so beautiful here at night and you realize how easily it can all be blown away. Makes you appreciate it more if possible on a balmy, breezy, tropical night like tonight.
Will update tomorrow. Not much more to say until Gustav pulls free from Jamaica and Hanna escapes from the ULL. Shame Hanna can't take a walk on the boardwalk. My gosh, it was so beautiful that would you believe a big FPL sort of truck pulled up right behind us on the beach and parked itself there to I suppose ??? enjoy the sites of the beach before they have to come back and board up, hunker down and put it all back together again.
Both seven mph.. something to think on... slow and lazy summer days or what's left of summer anyway.
Not much to add of value here except to say it's been a very busy day in the tropics.
Gustav is down in Jamaica where he wasn't supposed to be a few days ago and doing quite well all things considered.
The death toll in Haiti is rising and I'll post it later when it's done climbing. Sad, but true. One day with a stalled out Tropical Storm can cause great misery in Haiti. In Miami or Houston people complain, they get flooded and their lives get messed up. In Haiti the mountains turn to liquid rivers of mud and flow down onto the plains were people live in poorly built homes and the countryside becomes a sea of mud. The rivers of mud do not flow slowly but in torrents of flash floods where the earth moves like it is alive and everything in it's path gets picked up and swept away.
As for Hanna she is struggling with the Upper Level Low to her east and she will struggle with it a while. She's on back burner for a day or two but she will be a player in a few days, possibly next week. Her track has one certainity in it, it's uncertainity. She will meander, bobble and loop and cause forecasters busy with Gustav more misery.
This seems to be the season of looping storms that won't go away.
There is a system in the Western Gulf aka Bay of Campeche that may or may not develop but it's evolution today has been fascinating.
And to the east... there is a new wave off of Africa, a beautiful tightly wound little wave that has that look ...
So many players, so many loops, so many discussions..wow, don't know where to look first.
Kept two or three screens up for a while at work as people passed by and asked what I thought. I told them... we could have a storm next week but maybe not. Maybe Hanna will be kind??
As for me my front lawn looks like a used car lot. There are so many cars parked out there with people coming and going. You couldn't write a movie better than this :P and I mean that. So much drama going on here with all the players, it's like the tropics.. busy, tumultuous and always changing.
Remember one thing about Gustav.. not one model that I am aware of took Gustav to Jamaica and I mean this was a real mistake in the models. Why?
As for the windfield I posted earlier someone asked me if that can happen?
Sure it can.. anything in the tropics can happen but it probably won't. The timing will be off and when Gustav is to my left Hanna will be further away to the right. I think.
Reminds me of that Jimmy Buffett song Fins.. except the lyrics should be:
Can't you feel 'em circlin' honey? Can't you feel 'em swimmin' around? You got storms to the left, storms to the right, and you're the only bait in town.
Tropical Storm Hanna Forms and Gustav Hangs on and Heads West
HANNA BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
Well, well..what a day in the Tropics! What a show they are putting on? Two and possibly three systems are spinning just as models a while back had promised. Get those models a gold medal. Does Canada get the Tropical Gold here I wonder?
Here's a picture you don't see often and for a good reason!
First let's talk about Gustav. Unlike Fay, Gustav does not do land well. The good news for him is that once he ispast Jamaica he will have lots of running room to intensify over very hot water.That is, by the way... bad news for the cities he may visit down the line.
Gustav seems to have some problems with dry air as his eye tries to develop there is still some problem there I can't figure out due to lack of time and trying to figure out Hanna as she will be a Florida system and I am sorry to my friends to the north but Hanna is my priority for now. Watching both spin though, awesome..
Gustav is a fighter, I think he'll fight it off and once in that area of extreme latent heat to his wns he will thrive, he will survive and we will worry indeed on if he hits the loop current or which city he will reach with his eventual landfall.
Til then, it's a day for watching the tropics spin. Tropical Gustav, trying to get back up to Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna battling shear from the ULL that is enhancing it and trying to keep it weak at the same time.
As for Hanna, she is a large system that has maintained herself (formerly Invest 95) and been hanging around and refusing to take the fish route out to sea. She could be a massive problem to both Florida and the Gulf of Mexico later. When that ULL lets up she will blow up faster. IF Gustav becomes Gustav The Terrible than his outflow may hold her down a little bit both in size and track which is good for the Carolinas but not so good for Florida.
It will be an amazing ballet between these two storms that are fighters and have survived negative influences and weak steering currents for a while now.
As always with these systems, what does not kill them only makes them stronger!
Be back later, busy at work and just taking a quick coffee break to write while sipping down my coffee!
So...how do you like her now should be the question. How do you like her now, now that she's on her way?
Got two storms on the map and both are headed towards a date with a populated metropolitan area.
Time they upgraded the area being investigated on the NRL site to TD 8 and imagine it should be upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna later today.
Got a mean cone and hopefully not a hard heart.
So..while Gustav finds his groove down in Jamaica land all eyes turn east, or at least the right eye as Floridians wake up and find themselves a day away from being in the cone of a very large system headed west bound trapped under a strong high. And, if Gustav grows in intensity it will act as a magnet for Hanna to follow after him.
Oh... gee, where would Hanna go AFTER Florida? Inquiring minds want to know or not. Because she would be Gulf of Mexico bound. Think she's gonna steal a few headlines from Gustav and she's wondering how do you like me now?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOkhqxaKqVs (click for song)
Nothing to add to last night's post other than he looks better, the convection seems to be building steadily and to keep watching him and keep tuned to updates from the NHC on his steady progress back up to Hurricane status.
The big question is where he and Jamaica collide or not. He could continue go south of Jamaica, some models indicate that and others do not.
Short term.. he is building.
Long term.. if he gets into the Gulf he will have no problems building into anything he wants.
He still has to get there and has miles to go before he sleeps.
Stay tuned and up to date on Gustav as well as a storm called Hanna possibly forming to his east in the Atlantic.
Do not lose sight of the big picture while watching cones for Gustav.
Hanna could be out there lurking.
Look both ways when you cross the street and the same goes for watching the tropics.
His movement to the WSW really put some room between him and Haiti and is giving him some running room. Course he needs not to crash into Jamaica but for now it's keeping him alive so a sneaky trick and smart.
As I have said there has been high dry air to his north and northwest on his left side and the only way out was to go south of west and he took it.
As I said earlier on Hurricane City Message Board... he has to really bulk up and develop a real eye. He was barely a storm before he got into the ring with Haiti and the steering currents from hell. He needs more than a few hours at the gym, he needs to really bulk up and get a real eye going if he wants to survive and do his thing in the ultimate ring called the Gulf of Mexico.
Look at him though, he's trying. He's a fighter.
Look at that convection flaring up around his center.
And... if you want to see some real crazy wild model development watch South Florida get slammed by 95 and Gustav get his Gulf Coast Hit!
The Future of Gustav and What is NOT Gustav & More Tropical Systems Forming..
Please note when you look at this picture that the area of convection that looks bright, round and red is NOT Gustav. The area that is to it's NE where you can vaguely see a twist in the clouds is the center (give or take) of Gustav.
We have a real problem gang of faithful readers. The Mayor of New Orleans is explaining how to evacuate his city and non-essential personal are being taken off of Oil Rigs in the Gulf NOW and other cities are going into hyper warp speed hype mode and we barely have a Tropical Storm. If the NHC doesn't downgrade this to depression status at 11 it will be a pity call on one level and a need to follow the models that all have this system intensifying in a day or so and causing a problem in the Gulf down the road or down the cone which ever comes first.
Listen.. I thought it would become a Major several days ago when it wasn't even named. But, that was also based on him taking a path further to the West between Jamaica and Cuba where water temperatures are extremely hot and shear looked to be low. It's not there now it's here now or somewhere round here... between Cuba and Haiti and it should be re-intensifying as a good part of it is over land.
Next.. I don't believe this storm fell apart solely because of Haiti. I know Joe does (Bastardi) as he can wax on poetically about the science of meteorology he learned from his father and stories of how Haiti killed storms but it also suffered from steering currents that collapsed and left it stranded down there over the mountains of Haiti and a fierce ULL to it's NE that pushed the high down over it trapping it and tearing at it's very structure.
That was then and this is now.
Throw out the models and throw out the cone for a day or so is what I ask and deal with what is.
In the lingo of the day, the saying of the year.. It is what it is.. and Gustav tonight isn't much.
Deal with it. Embrace it. Accept it.
Tomorrow it may find a way to pull itself together and ramp back up and maybe Gustav will live up to it's expectations but tonight it's not.
You can't make something into what it isn't. And, it isn't a major Cane nor is it a minor Cane and it is a Tropical Storm by the hair on it's chinny chin chin.
It is one massive ball of convection left that was part of a beautiful band that swung around from it's SW side.
BUT..if you remember what I said the other day I said that there was something not quite right about Gustav. I didn't like the push me, pull me look to it and it always had this double barreled area of convection. I said that it could turn into a beautiful long tail like band. And, it did... for a day or so but we are back to the mess that it was when a few of the models refused to develop it 24 hours prior to it being upgraded to Gustav.
If you believe in models you have to also believe it's possible they knew something we didn't.
So.......not saying Gustav may not "threaten the entire Gulf" as just said on TWC's commercial but tonight it is threatening to die an ugly death in the Caribbean. And, am afraid it might be impossible to even find it's remains to bury it.
As a weak system, a small weak system it's best bet tonight it so head west, even south of west towards the area where it's tail is convecting quite nicely. Where the water is warm and the shear is light and he can get his groove back. But unlike Fay.. Gustav doesn't do land well so I doubt he will do Cuba well. Seriously, as a weak system it would and should go west under Cuba. IF it does and if it gets its sea legs again it can and probably will blow up south of Cuba when it's swimming in very hot water. But, that's down the road a good day away.
So, let's put Gustav on the shelf and take a look around the basin.
What was Fay is up in the Carolinas wreaking flooding rains.
We have an area of convection previously associated with Fay blowing up near Jamaica.
We have an area further to the right that is so close to Depression status tonight I am amazed that it is getting so little attention. This is a real sleeper system that hung out there for days and didn't give up and has really blown up today showing subtle signs of a low level center.
Further to the right (east..) we see a beautiful wave that came off of Africa and has a massive circulation.
And, they are lined up like planes coming in for a landing in Miami on a Friday night filled with tourists planning on partying on South Beach. All across the board just south of 20 spaced nicely, far enough apart so that they can all develop if they want.
The Canadian model that is often made fun of for over developing hurricanes is having a field day with this set up yet.. all we can do is sit and try to figure where Gustav will go once it ramps up to a Category 5 and devours Galveston.
This is the moment when you all have to stop, breathe, deal with what is and keep watching Gustav to see whether he can have a second coming and redevelop back into a strong Tropical Storm or a Category 1 Hurricane.
But again... if the timing is off then the forecast is off and again if the models don't see a stand still stall for almost 24 hours then there is something wrong with the models. It's like that old adage, if someone admits to part of a lie then you have to accept that he is a liar and there is more you don't know.
So... not sure what the future of Gustav is... I respect the NHC immensely and if they think it has a chance to do it .. I am sure it has a chance to do it.
But, think it's getting to be that time of year when we need to look around the basin and see what's out there and not be so small minded and look at the tropics with blinders on.
Keep watching, don't let your guard down but don't ignore what else is out there because we are going into September next week. As Cantore said tonight, in 24 to 36 hours this can be a whole different system. I agree, it can. But it is also possible it can't and it is what it is.. only time will tell....
September Remember and as we do remember know there is a new wave about to come off of Africa that looks to have a low attached possibly.
Besos Bobbi, Sweet Dreams.. got all my daughters in Miami tonight ;) We rock by the way... oh yeah!
Gustav has stalled over the peninsular of Haiti and is spinning in circles while the models keep spitting out new variations of death and doom further down the track. Small change in plans it seems as the models did not predict a stall.
Is this a slow stumble along her eventual path or is this a reality check?
It is still very possible that Gustav will get into the Gulf of Mexico and become a strong Category 3 Hurricane. Very possible. It is also possible it won't and it will have problems attaining the dreams that early fame forecasters had for her..
Forecasters and trackers and models have this built in tendency to remember the BIG ONES and err on the side of strength and they seem to forget the ones that fell apart and never lived up to their forecasts. And, oddly this happens often around Haiti. Not saying it is Haiti specifically as much as it is often the steering currents that go bling and stall out a developing storm. The battle of the troughs and the upper level lows and weak steering currents in late August and early September before the fronts zoom down and scoop up storms like this and race them off to the N or NE.
This is as big a lesson as climo can give.
When they get a little further west and south of Cuba we see the strong Gulf Storms that shoot the Yucatan Channel or crawl across Havana bound for ports further west like Galveston.
Let me take you down memory land..
Ernesto. Not so far back in our memories. Ernesto was dramatic, passionate, insistent. Ernesto sent red roses. The biggest bouquet of red roses I have ever seen in my life. Forecasters tracking the storm Ernesto lol also drew big red paths of possible destruction further to the north while Ernesto feasted on Haitian Cuisine down below never quite living up to the press releases.
Pic from online. Good picture. Seems the blogger's brother was over "there" on a vacation, again don't do the Tropics in August unless you like Tropical weather. My thanks to Frank Warner a liberal blogger it seems for his post back in August of 2006 on Ernesto. http://frankwarner.typepad.com/
Gee doesn't that look similar to Gus down there right now? Same time of year too...
Then we have Debby a storm that took the northern coast of the island and had the same collapse.
Read all about it while Gustav spins in little circles over Haiti making up his mind if he wants to go west, WNW or where ever it will be good for him to go when the steering currents improve.
Note both times we thought the models had it down really good and people panicked thinking Miami and other Gulf of Mexico cities were going to get slammed by another year's storm not really seeing Ernesto and Debby for what they were... typical Tropical Storms that got stuck down around Haiti.
Hey..sometimes it doesn't happen. Georges just kept going like the ever ready bunny.
What do I think?
I think what I have thought for the last 24 hours and that is that the high is not as strong as they hope or expect it to be down the road. When I went to bed last night the barometric reading in Miami was 29.96. I am sorry but that is not a strong high. Maybe it will get higher but far from where I would like to see it to be a force field and protect a track more to the right (ie north or north west) as models were showing a few days back. And, the upper level low to Gustav's northeast has been pushing down on it not letting it breathe, move or ventilate. And, that ULL came down like a bat out of hell last night fast and furious. Loop a loop and see.
As for me I have to get to work. Ain't no red roses on my dining room table and Ernesto is gone but not forgotten. A sweet passionate man who didn't really believe me when I said "no not really" yet handsome all the same. A sweet memory as Tropical Storm Ernesto is a memory and a reality check to those moments when we see Katrina and Allen.
IF the timing is off then the models are off.
You can't have a little bit of a lie in Tropical forecasting. IF something like timing is off then the track is off and the intensity if off. It might only be a subtle change or a coda at the end of a song but it is a pause and pauses are pregnant with possibilities.
We wait, we watch and we go about our lives not panicking and waiting to see if Gustav will pull it together and start chugging towards Cuba and the Gulf or if he will wait down there until the steering currents change just subtly so and take his path towards his destiny, his fame, his future landfall. Or he may slowly slip slide away into a storm we didn't see coming but we might like a whole lot more than the one the models were forecasting yesterday.
We wait. Well, you wait. I have to go to work. Can't sit here and write all day.
I'll update at lunch if and when I have something worth saying and or Gustav does something worth reporting.
Have a great day and enjoy life.
Besos Bobbi Ps..if you look at that there link I posted with Gustav spinning on the WV you will see Fay up above still raining on someone's parade.. possibly Gustavs..
Gustav Battles With Haiti - Invest 95 Lurks in the Shadows of the High
Some of the first pictures from Reuters out of Haiti where flooding was a problem from Gustav. More pictures will soon follow and reports of damage and possible deaths will continue as Gustav moves on towards the island of Cuba.
Gustav had a tough day today as he moved slowly across Haiti and bobbled around a bit trying to maintain it's eye. He lost the battle but he will most likely win the war. Tonight he has a ragged, ill defined eye according to the NHC and seems to be moving more WNW after he bounced off the peninsular of Haiti.
We need a good six hours or so to go to see how Gustav pulls himself together and where he goes exactly.
Down the road the forecast for him is for him to become a strong Category 3 hurricane pushing Category 4 status in the Gulf of Mexico ...somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. And, storms in the GOM are like bulls in a china shop, something is going to get broken and here is the drama as we are too far out to say which city is going to bear the brunt of Gustav.
We can't even be sure that scenario will play out as it is far down the road.
To the people in Houston who are panicking over the thought of Gustav's approaching fury please remember it is far out, a small storm and no one, not a meteorologist I know (and I know a lot) who would confidently say which 50 mile stretch of the Gulf Coast will be ground zero for landfall.
If you are worried... it's a good time to look over your hurricane supplies like we did in Florida last week. But... we are days away from panic time!
And, we have only had 24 hours of models to contend with since it officially became a named storm. That is a small period of time.
Let me remind people here that on the Friday evening news in Miami at 6pm on the weekend before Andrew made landfall South Florida was considered home free and out of the contest for Andrew to make landfall. Miami wasn't even vetted as the elimination process centered around cities to the North such as Jax, Savannah, Charleston and other cities along the Carolinas as the front was supposed to pick up Andrew and take him north. 6pm on Friday afternoon.
Friday to Saturday afternoon. 24 hours later... Andrew goes from weak hurricane to Major Hurricane and changes directions.
There were models, there were forecasts.. it was a busted forecast. Happens.
Saturday Night to Sunday Night ...sheer panic as Miamians try to find food on store shelves emptied after the first few hours of crazed shopping.
Sunday Night... to Monday morning.. ANDREW.
That was well within a 3 day cone let alone a 5 day cone.
Thank God we have gotten better at hurricane forecasting but it is an imperfect science trying to improve it's statistics and not totally there yet.
So... a lot can change in 3 days. Three days ago Gustav didn't exist.
But, there were models and the models varied greatly. At first Invest 94 stayed on the left side of the models and then he stayed on the right side of the models and then he took the middle ground.
Run this loop and hit play. You can watch how the models changed as we tracked Invest 94.
Let it run a few times and see how Gustav stayed on the left side of the model package and then the right side of the model package and the whole while the package moves back and forth like a flag in a strong breeze.
So.. watch Gustav carefully over the next 24 hours and watch the models and listen to the National Hurricane Center and take a look around at your lists and supplies you have packed away and review your possible plans. But... the impact zone at this point could realistically be anywhere from Texas to Florida as it is still too early to tell.
All we know for sure now is he will try and pull himself back together and move more west a bit but he will most likely move WNW and then we will see how strong he is, where he is and what he wants to do.
And, while talking about invests know that 95 is still not dead yet! Infact, a few models show it possibly developing and getting trapped under that High that is building in and carrying 95 West just like Gustav except Florida would be on the wrong side of that westward movement. Just a mere possibility but worth remembering.
It's late August, a wave is rolling off of Africa that is a beautiful wave. It should get Invest status almost as soon as it plops into the very hot water that is off of Africa right now. Dust is almost dead by the way and there are a few waves out in the middle of the ocean that the CMC models are lusting after and fantasizing into hurricanes. Got to give the Canadian his due, he doesn't give up... always a new model run with some big, hot, wet storms out there aiming their fury and passion at the Tropical Atlantic.
So.. remember those models for 95 because I don't want anyone to forget to keep their eyes west while watching Gustav bobble about and re-intensify to our South.
A few other links are listed below such as one for Cuban Radar that may become very valuable on the next few days and one on possible problems with the price of gas IF a destructive hurricane ran into the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. And, lastly remember everyone can go to interactive radar on www.weather.com and put layers on for international and watch the storm over the Carib. Speaking of storms in the carib stay with www.stormcarib.com for up to date reports from people in the path of Gustav and some nice satellite imagery.
I'm going to bed. Going to sleep. I'm sleepy. I had a Kirin with dinner at China Bistro in the Waterways with most of my family that is in town waiting for the other half of my family coming in over the next two days. It was a beautiful night, we ate outside on the patio and my kids walked their nieces and nephews around to look at the yachts and the water and the people out for a nice tropical evening in Miami.
The cone of uncertainty as they call it on a few station here remains the same. He is supposed to turn wnw soon and slow down and eventually get further west as a Major Cane! Sounds like a novel doesn't it? Major Cane!
Not much to add currently but will update later tonight.
I have relatives in town who luckily did NOT travel today. Going out to dinner if we can find a restaurant we all fit in! More coming in tomorrow and Thursday. So, distracted between work and family obligations and trying to peek a boo the loops when I can. They think I'm getting dressed now... shhhhh and then I have to straighten my hair :) maybe I can squeeze in a few water vapor loops!
What a world.
Heads up ...there are two more and possibly three systems that can also develop later this week.
An eye pops out, looks around and it should see the high to it's north and begin to turn a bit more to the west and stop it's steady progression to the NW.
Basically...we are waiting for Gustav to blink and bend left towards Cuba and land masses that can keep him away from the United States for now and keep him weaker than he might be if he takes the short road not the long road.
Best case scenario for us though not for Cuba is for him to bank left and begin a 3 day tour of the Cuban peninsular. Worst case scenario for us is that he continues NW into the wind and ignores the pretty graphics the NHC has posted for him online.
The NHC has been pretty good this season in forecasting difficult storms and Gustav threatens to be another difficult storm to forecast.
Why? Maybe it's because Fay is still up there doing a blocking sort of dance with the front that is pushing down towards Florida. For the first time in months when the front barrels down from the plains there is something there waiting for it other than a Florida city looking for severe weather. Maybe its because forecasting old, dead storms like Fay are sketchy at best and reliant upon it performing like other storms have in that time and place. Way too many invariables for my tastes. Maybe it's because there is an upper level low setting up that will want to influence Gustav. Maybe it's because Gustav keeps intensifying and pushing into the high. Maybe it's because if Gustav intensifies today too fast that as a Major Hurricane he gets a free pass to do things that he could not do as a Category One as he will be able to make his own steering currents. And, he is a Category One pushing Category Two status right now. Maybe it's just because it's 2008 and this year's crop of storms seem tenacious, stubborn and a bit fickle and prone to doing whatever they want.
Right now we have a weak high over the Orlando area that hopefully is building in. However, it's a weak high still and there is a lot of moisture and rain here so it's not all that strong a high yet.
And, what if a high builds in over Gustav?
Where will Gustav cross Haiti? What direction will it be headed.d
It has slowed down a bit. The barometric pressure has also deepened and recon is and will find a stronger storm.
You can use this website to pick your own favorite view of Gustav. Each shows a different part of the storm which is why they look so different. Sort of like a slice and dice interactive video game to show you what's inside Gustav and what makes him go.
What bothers me about Gustav? What can you gain from my Tuesday discussion that you can't gain from the NHC or anyone else round here?
Gustav worries me. IF he pulls together into a Major Category Three Hurricane he will more likely behave normally and do what Major Hurricanes do. But, he has a push me, pull me area of strong weather not always moving in tandem with the center. He has pulled it together and yet he hasn't. He should look better, he should look rounder. He looks to be constantly in a mode of re-intensification. Something, be it dry air or a not perfectly aligned structure keeps halting that process and he often looks like he wants to lunge west and then keeps going NW. I'll put up a loop that is valid only this morning as it will change as the day progresses.
Something is not perfectly fluid about Gustav, not in how he spins or in how he looks. There is an area to his SW that often spins on it's own and flares up giving it an unbalanced sort of look. IF it pulls together more that will probably end up as one nasty band. But, it still looks awkward. Like an awkward child. It is barely a day old.
Now go to the wide view, it's important to look at the wide view:
Fay moves and pushes the high around way too fast, everything is way too fluid for a clear cut picture of how things will be five days from now if you ask me. I'm not a Tropical Model just a Tropical girl who has watched the tropics a long time. You don't like to see so much in flow and flux. You like to see a more stable, serene water vapor where you can easily figure out where Gustav will go.
As pointed out today on Miami's local weather on Channel 7 .. 24 hours ago he was just an area of low pressure and I will add he is now pushing Category 2.
The models call for him to slow down and decide he doesn't like the way the high looks to his north and he will go west the young man he is and feel his oats over Cuba.
Hope so for our sake though I wouldn't wish this storm on anyone as I think he will get more problematic as he gets older and into this terrible twos.
Keep watching! I'll update around lunchtime when I have time and there is something to say other than to keep a close eye on the storm down below and hope he follows the road map that the NHC has prepared for him.
See ya all later. Besos Bobbi.
Nice site someone posted online today that I am passing along here. Much to play with, enjoy and keep watching.
Okay, been a long day in the realm of the Tropics.
Gustav formed rather dramatically and then it's rapid intensification began to level off as watches and warnings were put up for parts of the Caribbean.
Florida is in the cone or more specifically I am in the cone. Again. In the cone again. Normally, I would be sort of excited but this week is not a good week for me to be in the cone. Like any time is? Well, sometimes are better.
But most of Florida for now is in the cone as we see which way Gustav goes.
Does the high build in to his northeast and push him gently west over the backbone of Cuba? Or do pressures stay low to his north pulling him up to the north? How does Fay's remnants affect Gustav and is that possible? A lot to think on.
An ever changing picture of a water vapor view as moisture races south from an upper level low above and Gustav tries to move on to the west and get past that violent vapor boundary.
It was pulled a bit to the NW earlier but I truly think it wants to go wnw and that river of violent air is snapping at it and trying to grab some of it's thunder but in a little while Gustav will be past that violent outburst on the water vapor loop and he will be in a better position to continue the intensification phase he was into this morning.
Let me say one thing here. It has two roads... north towards land, mountains, friction with land and lots of voodoo curses and Santeria priests tossing chicken bones into the water to try and make it stay weak. You think I'm being funny, hey I was raised in Little Havana, they are selling more than pink carnations in those Botanicas on Calle Ocho!!
If it goes north there is a better chance it will stay weak and hover around the Category 1/2 borderline as it meanders along the track taken by Fay towards the US mainland.
IF it goes west and takes the road less traveled this year it can and will intensify and grow into a strong major hurricane like we haven't seen yet this year.
Tracks of Allen come to mind for some reason but that only plays out if it goes west and know that the newest models are trending west and then west north west.
Just be aware that this is early in the game and we haven't yet gotten a real feel for Gustav... but we will. The more we learn, the more the models are better at track and intensity.
So... I'll be back later after I get $10 for a locker and $10 for a Gemorah and $18 for something for Rivky and a 3 subject notebook and possibly some sort of pens.. oh please Gustav come and take me away...
I'll be back later with some real tropical insight.
Keep watching.. the cute guys at the NHC will be and so will you and me!
$28 dollars, a 3 subject and a binder...
See Yah Later...
I really did think it was going west today but EVERYONE said NW including the NHC so... maybe it changed directions???
TD 7 Forms! Heading NW towards Haiti, Cuba and Florida
Currently headed NW...
Not a lot to say as we wait for more better data from the planes as we say down south.
More better data will give us more better models and hopefully a different flavor Ice Cream Cone other than this particular flavor.
Oh my goodness..what can I say? Except...oh my goodness.
For some reason I am giggling uncontrollably. Nervous reaction am sure.
94 goes NONAME on NRL - Expect upgrade to Gustav soon... It's Just A Matter of Time
NRL has upgraded 94 to NONAME which is like a press release in the tropical community as they will upgrade it to either TD status or go straight to Gustav. Now maybe someone can have a long talk with those models and get them to talk to each other. Peace between Russia and Georgia might be easier...
September rain in Miami ushers in the real hurricane season. It is as if someone turned a switch in the heavens and you wake up to a multi-colored sunrise with dark rain clouds floating across the otherwise serene sky and suddenly there is the sound of gentle rain falling down. Sunrise showers. Messes up the walk to school for kids and the morning commute on I-95 but it is a sign of things to come.
Summer is afternoon rain... which we still get until October but now it is matched with the soft, incessant sound of rain falling down as the shower passes on somewhere else all the while the sun is still rising quietly on the horizon.
Fay is still raining morning rain on Northern Florida. Here's a sample of the weather report for the beautiful antebellum town that helped to bring you Coca Cola. Hey it's one of those family homes where my Grandma lived with her married sister growing up. Where she learned to sing those great Southern Lullabies.
Quincy, FL (wunderground report) 77 °F / 25 °C Light Thunderstorm Rain Humidity: 89% Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C Wind: 16 mph / 26 km/h / 7.2 m/s from the ESE Wind Gust: 23 mph / 37 km/h / 10.3 m/s Pressure: 29.87 in / 1011 hPa (Steady) Visibility: 8.0 miles / 12.9 kilometers UV: 0 out of 16 Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1900 ft / 579 m Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft / 883 m Overcast 6000 ft / 1828 m (Above Ground Level) Elevation: 79 ft / 24 m
As for the Invest we call 94... time to get that plane up in the sky... see if it has a verifiable center and we can get out of hurricane maps and start tracking again.
Personally, I hate the Mall... never seen such ugly looking clothes as there are this season. They didn't have the left black pump at Sears that they had the right one for. Maybe it's just me but Sears lately looks like a thrift shop and if I am doing the thrift shop I'd rather do Red, White and Blue. Noisy. Very noisy. Why are clothes on the rack wrinkled? Bought two black shirts, one dressy top and had a purple carrot at the juice bar.
Going to work, wonderful work... starting a new term at the end of the week :) Always nice seeing students back on campus.
Sunday Night Tropical Update ala Bobbi - Invest 94
This is a late night post that I felt was important enough to write and yet I am not sure what I am going to say or should say except to give you a heads up and know it is there and it is doing pretty nice if I may say so.... in that it has pulled together in less than 12 hours and is no longer a messy wave like trough.
Compare the post from this morning to tonight's set up..
A different picture.
Hard to believe there isn't a lower level center rolling along there. Surface obs haven't picked it up yet it's below most the Obs and too far from the South American coast.
It's in the right pocket for development. Any further north and the shear would rip at it and any further south and friction with South America would hinder it.
It's become circular and maintaining convection. Planes will go in tomorrow *IF* necessary which is what they always say but can't imagine they won't go in.
Should be upgraded to Depression tomorrow at least.
I am not going to say stupid things here that are irresponsible or foolish like GULF COAST WATCH OUT or OH NO ANOTHER FAY!
This will be Gustav and it will have it's own set of priorities and parameters.
Do not fall into that trap of thinking that every new storm is the same as the last storm.
IF it looks this good tomorrow and IF there is a low level center and IF it is stacked properly I would think this could become a major hurricane down the road. A lot of IFs.. three to be exact but 3 would be the magic number. I rarely intensity forecast around here, track yes.. intensity no and I have not been 94's biggest fan but I'm seeing things to indicate we may have a real problem in a day or two.
Surface water temps are in the upper 80s... closer to 90 in some areas. Wind shear is going to lessen and it won't have interaction with land unless it pulls nw faster than it should as I would imagine it to go wnw soon.
Official track from NRL:
A lot depends on where they plot it and then run the new models. You know the drill. I had a boyfriend who used to say that, marching band.. they knew the drill. Not my lingo, I was acting and writing and political science.
So... keep your eye on the south while hearing updates on Fay's flooding rains and the climbing death toll of storm related deaths which TWC put at 13 tonight.
95 is not dead yet and there is a wave over near Africa.
Models are all over the place so am not even going to go there except to say that the European was bringing it north up towards Florida. Others take it into the Gulf and others can't even find it.
They will find it tomorrow night.. unless the big bad wolf comes and blows it away.
Don't see any midnight wolves going to do that so... stay tuned, this one is developing and has Gustav written all over it.
Fay Fades Away! Fins Win Big Time! Bobbi Rambles....
This is one of those Ramblin' Posts so if you are only looking for tropical info stop at the Besos and don't keep going. Some thoughts on the Tropics today and life in general, past, present and possibly the future. Sort of like taking a walk through Bobbi's brain. Read between the lines if you can or want to otherwise stop at the Besos. If you want to get lost online surfing... click on the links and enjoy your Sunday!
Fay fades slowly away as she transforms back into what she was all along, a lot of tropical rain and that rain is falling all across the Deep South in places that really need it desperately. Some areas however are getting more rain than others but you can't order Rain the way you can a pizza. Will it rain on Atlanta and it's northern suburbs and that lake they are always showing on TWC or will it keep raining on the St. Marks River which is flooding and hopefully will crest later today.
Record Crest at St. Marks River 12.24!
Shame we can't get that rain on Lake Lanier but maybe some of Fay's rains will find their way to your lake, your street and the land in which you live in subtle smaller amounts that what parts of the Panhandle are getting.
That's the problem with the Tropics, you don't always get what you bargained for and in Florida's case we got rain everywhere across the State. I heard it said there wasn't a county that didn't get measurable rain from Fay. Probably true. If she had pulled together with a REAL eye and had become a cat 3 only the small swath of land and a few cities far way in a distant band would have gotten rain. But Fay stayed a Tropical Storm and a big one at that and therefore she spread her rain around hopefully encouraging lots of things to grow and get a boost to Lake Okeechobee. Sorry about that Pt. St. Lucie and Melbourne, sort of like collateral damage when we try and hit a military base of terrorists and take out a few apartment buildings with civilians. Bummer but hey when you live in the Tropics you are fair game for any tropical system doing it's dance of transferring energy from the equator to the higher latitudes and bringing needed rains to parched lands and lakes with enough water.
But hey... we dry out down here and we don't get blizzards, volcanoes or F5 Tornadoes. We also don't get earthquakes but if the team who brought you the new report on New York City being susceptible suddenly to possibly strong earthquakes they can probably rouse up a possible low level 3s or 4s. Hey, Cuba has had earthquakes, strong ones and it is not that far away from Florida so I am sure sometime in Earth's history we have had earthquakes too!
Some facts you never knew about Caribbean Tsunamis and Earthquakes:
So... just know everywhere you go you can face some problem and as they go I'll take a Tropical Storm with a penchant for hitting land like Fay had over a Tsunami or a F5 any day!
Before I talk about 94 look at that long leash 95 in the middle of the ocean has down to the newest African Wave. With the high building in I don't think you can count 95 out, it's not impossible for it to be a player in weird ways.
Problem with 94 is that it's too windy and wild in Fay's wake for him to get his act together just yet. There is a lot of color with this wave which still looks like a wave axis or a disorganized area of rain and low pressure moving in tandem West. Looks like a wave... but like it has a bodyguard moving ahead of it sniffing out the area, checking it out and reporting back to the main player. Ever see a big wig with a body guard? It's cute, they always walk in together and then the Big Cheese stands still, talks a bit while the body guard sniffs out the area in all four directions until he comes back, there is this little eye connection thing complete with shrugs and facial expressions and the body guard stands there looking useless and bored and waits until the Big Cheese sort of dismisses him with some odd comment and the body guard makes for the door fast like. And, suddenly there you are... face to face with the Big Cheese himself staring back at you.
Hello Gustav! Or whatever the name of the year is..
Yes, that is the evolution of a Tropical Mess evolving in front of you!
Happens... politicians, producers and parasites.
Yes maam, time to board up the house, put the shutters up and start ordering sushi!
For now we are watching Fay fade away but as each wave moves off of Africa
If you aren't interested in African Waves or Fay here are some links you can peruse and enjoy to keep you busy and preoccupied online.
Have a lot going on today and not that much in the deep tropics so I'll be in and out and all around.
Dolphins Won yesterday big time. Was one of the best Dolphin games I've seen since the 80s, do NOT tell me that it was "just a pre-season game" because I'll take any win I can get right now!
Going shopping today and not coming back without something to wear to my nephew's Bar Mitzvah. I am not a shopping person, not your typical girl. My idea of a shopping trip is Victoria Secrets and any really good shoe store. Somehow I think that isn't gonna cut it this time around.
Besos Bobbi big PS... links, loops and loopy thoughts...
http://www.mysticaluniverse.com/index/Everest_Climbers/zyc/zyc.html "He also went on to state that the waiting period for all tribes would be over when the earth moved and made a great sound. This, as it happened, was the New Madrid earthquake -- a place where no seismic activity had ever been recorded before. True to his predictions, a shooting star graced the sky on November 16, 1811 and the New Madrid quake began on December 16, 1811 with severe aftershocks lasting for several months." (personally, I believe Indians can make the earth move for what it's worth... )
Other's just blame it on Jupiter and Saturn:
http://www.astrofuturetrends.com/id69.html (maybe the Indian Cheif knew about that one like Columbus knew about that eclipse... hmmmmnnn)
Speaking of politics.. If you live down here in this part of Florida.. Vote for Joe!
One thing I learned in life from Joe personally, way back at Coral Park is "nothing is impossible! Improbable maybe but never impossible!" Joe was and is one of the smartest, most compassionate and compelling men I have ever known. And, smart enough to make sure I saw the Undefeated Miami Dolphins play in the Orange Bowl in the season to remember.
Speaking of blasts from the pasts... enjoy ... was one hell of a Formal! 5th Dimension always put on one hell of a show :)
Go Rams! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_Coral_Park_High_School
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm