A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Noel Close to Being a Hurricane?
Maybe for just for a few hours or twelve til the front moves in ...
For now... storm growing on the south and west...
Supposedly drifting north at 3...
That front is there, it will catch it eventually but until it does...
This storm is intensifying ... center is visible on various imagery
look at that..
Here, we are up... older son came home with bags of candy (cool, expensive, interesting stuff... nice neighborhood lol and after doing Lincoln Road (which was packed... they are expecting 40,000 people) and ending up at the Beach watching the waves with his friends (pier closed off, police policing but letting kids sit and watch the waves from various vantage points).. wild waves, wild wind here off and on gusting and bands of showers slamming rain against the jalousies....and then it's quiet until it starts again..
Hurricane Watch in Miami... watching Tropical Storm Noel grow and race off to the north at a breakneck 3 miles per hour lol.
Check out that Nogaps...
Pressure in Miami currently 29.76
How close can Noel come before catching the front...
Tropical Storm Noel Strengthening, Tricks In His Bag on Halloween
Okay... the 8pm has come in and Tropical Storm Noel has strengthened to 60mph winds and is forecast to continue developing somewhat. I quote: "Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours."
They upgraded the forward movement from meander to a drift... (rolling eyes) and they call it north though I would call it NW based on visible imagery.
I think it's possible at this time for Noel to approach Hurricane status as steering currents are light and storms often continue to intensify when they drift over warm water with weak steering currents. I'm not saying it's a sure thing.. I am saying it's a distinct possibility.
The front has basically stalled for now.. eventually that should change and Noel will take the bait but for now.. he is drifting, which must be at least 1 mile per hour faster than a meander.
So... here I am in Miami, currently under a Tropical Storm Watch... watching Noel.
A nice pic from the beach before I left around 4pm this afternoon...
A nice pic of my sky just before sunset in Miami tonight...
As for the NHC... and Noel... for a Christmas storm it's doing a darn good job of doing the old Boo and Trick or Treat isn't it?
One last shot... my Jack O Lantern Noel Pic.. Please note that the western side of Noel has grown and he is more round, like a pumpkin :) and that western part of his is almost touching 80 ... even though his Lower Level Center is given as otherwise. So..that is the leading edge of the Weather Center... seems to me if Noel intensifies as Mr. Avila implies me may or rather forecasts him to.. we may soon have a minimal or borderline hurricane out there drifting around over warm water waiting for his frontal limousine out of town.
What a world... adrift in weak steering currents, I think all bets are off for the short term...
Have a safe Halloween.. hope y'all have someone you love at your side to share it with... life like kisses is best shared.
Time To Post Warnings or Watches For South Florida
It's getting silly... and I really do not care about the legal ramifications of whether some school teacher will be forced to drive to work tomorrow in sustained winds in excess of Tropical Storm Category because she has a High Wind Warning VS a Tropical Storm Warning.
The storm is drifting west, jogging west or moving west.. its going more to the West than we thought..
I just got back from Miami Beach... no one on the beach except for windsurfers and police... NO ONE.. I've seen Category 2 Hurricanes invite more people out to look... the waves are rolling in, higher than the highest high tide line and crashing over them.
This picture shows a wave.. what it doesn't show is there is a 3 feet drop or so down below where that foam is.. the highest waves are crashing up onto the little bluff built up from the erosion and the water/foam is spreading out on the little cliff.
I stood behind a little shack the lifeguards use to protect myself from the wind and rainstorm that had winds coming almost horizontal. My brother called me from Hallandale Beach and told me to the South (where i was) it was black.
Very black.. see pic:
Okay... let's get with the program guys and call it like it is. Time to tell the truth, face the devil as they say..
People's lives are at stake here and worrying over the name game for tomorrow gets tired. Sometimes you call a Warning and nothing happens, give thanks, hang out with family and don't take a bus down to South Beach to work and find out at noon that the County pulled the buses because sustained winds were over 40mph and they shut down the buses stranding people. It happened with Irene.
Have we learned nothing?
Recon found the system moving more West and yet..at 2pm they went with it being a temporary jog. They have no way of knowing and telling you that "system" is HUGE and the front is not..
Eventually it will go out to sea.
Eventually it will be winter.
Eventually life will go on but for the next 18 hours there is a huge possibility that Miami and areas around here will be receiving sustained winds of Tropical Storm Force intensity but we are worrying about semantics and legalities.
Time to put up warnings of some kind other than "high wind" warnings.
Reminds me of a great old song about where you going billy... but for some reason my mind is focused on the news of Robert Goulet's death... probably because I'm a drama major from way back and he was at one time the real king of broadway, well... king of the men with great voices and a presence... eyes, spirit...unreal... Howard Keel may have had a greater voice (maybe) but I think Robert Goulet in that place and time was the best stylist on Broadway... so a ton of songs go spinning through my head while I watch the weather loops and listen to the wild wind this morning ...
Long on thoughts and short on time.. what a shame. Have to straighten my bangs and get my make up and figure out what I am wearing today because here in windy Miami... we may have weather but we have work ;)
Great loop for watching the showdown between the front and the storm.. http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribir.html bobbi's old unisys love: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
So.... after reading the 5am discussion by the wonderful Jack Beven I want to give my thoughts back on that...
1... its not moving very fast
2... they expect shear to lighten up?
3... they aren't sure its movement or reformation of the center (???)
4... this was great reading
4 doors.. pick the lady or the tiger
THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL... AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD... SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM. THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
Interesting, glad they are SURE the front will grab it..
Personally, I would think he would be moving NW towards the front right now... just my thought but time will tell... even if Robert not Jimmy is on my mind this morning.
Take care all..and may all your dreams come true.. not my favorite and old quality but... will look for others later ... vintage Goulet and 1967
See I am still watching the water vapor loop (as well as dvorak, rainbow roll and visible..) and it seems to me that high pressure is beginning to move out over the storm and where yesterday i could see the NE curve out to sea and thought it was JUST an issue of where and when
now I am having problems seeing it happening as easily as they thought previously
here is the wv from 12 hours ago.. with your hand, cover the storm and only look at the top part so as not to be distracted.. just look at the front
Now look at the newer WV image which was current around 10am Tuesday
Note the front has gone somewhat Flat and if anything is the high pressure is moving out over the storm shoving Noel to the west not the NW... not saying wnw may hopefully happen but for the moment that front is not moving SOUTH and the front is moving more from west to east.. out waiting for some impulse to sweep it more to the SE and until that happens...
Noel is a name Miamian's will come to associate with one of those flakey Halloween Storms.. hard to forecast and a big Question Mark for tomorrow..
Waiting on the 11am.. will post more later after that comes out
For now.. understand that a few models of reliable fame do take this storm closer to Florida and the Keys than the CONE is showing.
One..takes it through the Keys (mid Keys) and cuts NORTH and then cuts up along the inland suburban corridor like some Miami-Dade/Broward commuter driving home from work...then out WPB into the Atlantic.
IF it was my call I'd err on safety and post a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning... and remind people we don't expect it to be Andrew but we might have strong enough winds to have power outtages and you might want to stay home from work tomorrow AND keep the kids in.. cause this isn't about a pressure gradient, it's about a Tropical Storm called NOEL.
Tropical Bullshit and Word Games as Noel Moves WEST
Tropical Storm Noel is currently moving WEST at 12mph over the warm waters of the Old Bahama Passage which means it is doing a sight seeing trip to Cuba but staying politically correctly just off shore. It's a beautiful passage, been there and watched the mountains of Cuba slide by off in the distance once when a tropical storm in the Bahamas rearranged my trip home from Puerto Rico.
We have a cone that basically shows Noel landing just off shore and in true political fashion the Florida officials will send Noel packing back off to sea. Sorry Noel... dry land vs wet land, as long as we can keep you offshore you are not allowed to stay and visit or linger.
Yes sir... we now have a new policy on tropical events. IF it stays off shore and turns 20 miles or 2 miles from the coast of South Beach we will only issue HIGH WIND WARNINGS and scam those tourists with money to burn in their pockets into holding onto their hats and trying to order Mojitos at the Clevelander Hotel on Ocean Drive and smile and tell them "OH... Noel... he's going to the Bahamas"
We will NOT issue a Tropical Storm Warning............Nooooooo
We will hang tight and not blink and play chicken with the little NE bound tropical storm that is moving WEST at a nice clip.
Mind you that several models already kiss South Florida and show Noel coming ashore and dancing a tango but the NHC has decided to hang tough and NOT upset local employers who will expect Miamians to drive to work on Wednesday battling "HIGH WINDS" but not "Tropical Storm Winds" as they drive across the causeway to work the nice little bars and restaurants who will cater to all the people in town for conventions at the Convention Center.
Sorry gang..that's Tropical Bullshit.
Definition of a High Wind Warning:
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS ADVISORY COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY IF THE FORECAST TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST PLACING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WITHIN THE INNER CIRCULATION OF NOEL.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND THE HOME OUTDOORS.
Definition of Tropical Storm Warnings:
You will feel the force of Tropical Storm force winds 39mph in the next 24 hours.
I would think somewhere along the line here we are going to get WINDS of 40 mphs and gusts higher but they are NOT OFFICIALLY TROPICAL STORM WINDS.. just high winds..
I imagine the Coast Guard has been put on watch to position itself just offshore near the beaches of Miami and if they think it's getting too close.. they are to use their hoses and keep the poor little illegal alien Noel offshore and escort him out to sea....
Ah.... if only weather was as easy as politics...
Tropical Bullshit going on here..
I'll post later after the very interesting 8pm advisory..
Time To Talk Tropics... How Close Does Noel Come to Miami? WPB?
Okay, I'm here... time to talk Tropics it seems.
I went on a history walk downtown with the incredible Dr. George only to be almost blown away on Flagler Street. The wind was so loud you could barely hear over it at one point. Gusty, coming and going... fast, furious and frenzied.
Something is going on here and it does not smell like a storm about to race off into the Atlantic. Apparently around Hole In the Wall..it will recurve out to sea...
It may go off into the Atlantic.. but I'm just not sure this is going to play out normally.
Maybe that's because I haven't had a very normal day...
So... possibly in the morning there will be a watch, possibly it will reform closer to Bermuda...possibly the front will pick up speed and orient itself differently and zoom down the State..
Stay tuned, same windy bat channel, same windy bat place...
Besos Bobbi (going to bed, I was up real late last night ... ya know?)
Okay.. I can't help myself, I am just so funky funny today. I am still in shock. Why? I don't know.. was so crazy back in 2004 and this time it was different. Maybe I just thought it couldn't happen twice so soon together or nothing could compare with that crazy year. I miss Pedro, love Johnny Damon... others who are gone and there was this new team... some old Marlins, other good players, a Japanese guy which in mind was there to fight whats his name who killed us with the Yankees... I don't know.. I just kept watching and watching in amazement at how good Timlin and Papelbom
are and just kept thinking.. "we really are the best team this year" but really.. I mean, really not gonna fold or well..
Dreams do come true.. they really do :)
I LOVE THIS PICTURE:
So.............bare with me a bit here guys and gang until I get this out of my system .. and as my friend Jack Einhorn said.. which will probably be til the end of 2007 lol.. and considering you do NOT want to hear my views on the Fins...
He has such heart <3
Time to celebrate, all you other teams will have your day again.. but today, it's Red Sox Monday ;) Wish I was in Boston..
I mean what can you say about a pitcher with the greatest eyes who can pitch like he bought off the devil and dance like the wind ;)
So... Noel is down there somewhere around Hispanola or as some lady on TWC used to say Tahiti lol and when he gets his a@@ off of Haiti we will see what we will see. I don't think it's over. I don't think it's gonna be so easy to track. I don't see the front of the year zooming down..
The front is pushing or sliding west to east more than NW to SE like a front in November might... not saying it won't come down but.. it might be a push me pull me sort of movement which shows up in those wierder tracks certain models showed yesterday and probably today except that I haven't checked the models because unless their names are Manny or Beckett I probably missed them somewhere.
For the best tropical discussion ANYWHERE on the Planet... and possibly the whole entire galaxy go to www.hurricanecity.com and watch Jim's Tropical Update which is sooo much better than the one on TWC.. and it's here, anytime you want it... and trust me Jim knows where Haiti is.. I have the napkin to prove it (giggling, a lot)
You want tropics? Go to hurricanecity.com or flhurricane.com
Or just put up with me for a day or two here... oh and to a certain little Filly in the Holy Land .. am sending it out today, I promise.. sort of like a dove.. and if it brings me back a twig I am sending the whole flock ;) You Go "Girl" :P
Great lesson here for me... if anything I'm in shock and amazed, awed... they really did it. And, they swept it.. just like before, just like last time. Like it's NORMAL?? And, not at Fenway Park either... go figure that one?
I'm happy, amused and sort of numb, quietly smiling, letting it sink in...
We swept the World Series. AGAIN! Wow.
For all you RED SOX Fans... who want to buy something .. knock yourself out ;) As for me.. I am going to wear the necklace tomorrow, again.. possibly the whole rest of the Year ;)
and gonna buy my son that wrist band he wants with his favorite player
Okay this is not the most tropical post except to say they broke in once to give an update. I don't see nnw movement... I see it meandering and more south than before and probably wnw and then nw and then who knows.. I think steering currents are weaker than the advisories are showing... time will tell.
I heard someone say tonight while being interviewed...the first time was for their parents, grandparents, great grandparents... this time was for them, for us... just because.
Best Closer in the World...
Unreal and true... it was all about breaking the curse last time, getting back after 86 years... of it being possible.
This time... was about winning the World Series and nothing else. And, a great team, cohesive team of funny great guys.
So.... teaches you a lesson, or me...that sometimes the Second Time around is actually better than the first time. Sometimes... good things can happen in life twice and they are just as good if not better the second time around.
So.... go out and grab your brass ring, catch your falling star and celebrate like there is no tomorrow.
Wish I was in Key West tomorrow so I could have breakfast with the Breakfast Club over at Lulu's and watch Jack go crazy and look happy and well... he said not to worry, I can come anytime... he'll be celebrating til the end of 2007!
And, so will I.. even on my moody days.. I can smile and giggle..
Enjoy the pics... watch Noel.. let's see if he knows how to play the game.
Nite... Bobbi Sox :)
we won, giggling... AGAIN ps... thank you Wayne for helping the Red Sox win :)
We currently have a strong Tropical Storm .... that appears to be headed towards a date with a cold front that is not exactly zooming down Florida but sort of hanging there draped across the Northern Florida region which should kick into gear soon and move south. I'm a little skeptical. Trust me my electric bill would love the front to zoom zoom down but we are still in that time when fronts do funny things... they rarely sweep down but its possible.
Personally I would love a really good cold front vs the clean up and loss of electric a hurricane brings but I do not see how you easily ignore the nogaps, the ukmet and gfs in your pursuit of the GFDL which is what it would seem the NHC has done with this storm. It is way far from over and yet we seem to have written off Noel as a Bahamian Fish.
We are still south of Hispanola.. so if you all don't mind I am going to wait til we see which way he is really going before taking out my suede high heel boots and throwing out the water containers still under the sink.
Check back later for more info...
As for Fins.. can a city fire the owner of the team? Personally, the shit has to hit the fan sometime or another... you can't just go on and on and on and on and pretend this will all go away and its part of a long process of rebuilding the Fins.. they look much worse this week and last then they did four weeks ago. I'm as supportive as they get, I came home to watch them play... I love them, I do not love their owner who watches them with the attention span of a child who has a room full of toys and every once in a while he seems to take this one down off his shelf and wonder why it's broken and he forgot to get new batteries. I do not think Wayne has the passion of most team owners in the NFL.. and I think Cam is a few batteries short in the inspiration department.. I don't care about the little guys, I care about the Dolphin players who were all let go and are playing fine elsewhere, Lord knows you can take all the old players who are doing fine and dandy elsewhere and make one winning team.
Has a team ever been allowed to forfeit a season before? I think we are getting into new territory here....
So... I'll be back later.. in Red Sox mode here... but when the World Series is over... I'll be staring at the Fins and feeling weak, sad and some how angry and annoyed but not sure who to blame. Can we get Jimmy Johnson to pinch hit coach?
Later, Bobbi Great new page... well, feature.. interactive and great new feature Jim added
Noel Forming in the Carib.. Waiting for Recon to Upgrade
Hard to believe this isn't already a Tropical Storm and also ... amazing it's consolidated so well considering part of it is still over Hispanola.
Look at this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html
Awesome symmetry developing and consistent energy level...
So many tracks to choose from but... as long as it goes slow and stays south the more of a chance it has to make some sort of impact in the Florida Keys or South Florida... October storms actually hit South Florida more than any other storms.
Then again... it has to develop and we'll have to watch.
Squeeze play here between Dolphin game :( and Red Sox Game ;)
I'll be back later when Recon has more definitive information..
But for now.. in the cone and I don't mean Ice Cream Cones ;)
Models for Possible System... Rock the Baby? Cats Cradle?
What is that?
Every which way but ?
Seriously. Anyway... raining here with thunder. IF it formed I would go with HWRF, not because I am "wishcasting" but because with the flow out of the Carib going south to north I don't see how it would or could go west..
Take care... have things to cook and letting my son on and resting and enjoying the rain.
Adding these pics in here because they really say it all and at least I'll know where to find them :) And...really does the above picture say it ALL about Bobbistorm ;)
Raining here on Miami Beach, dark and flooding a bit along the edges of the roads.
Woke up this morning to a purple sky, lavender or orchid like...then got rainier.. darker.
Got soaked when this let go and the heavens burst...
Then these incredible flowers fell down from the big Signature Tree and oh wow... is that awesome or what?
Watch the area by the Yucatan... it has stronger winds and low pressures. I do see that the area by the islands has lower pressures but lower winds as well. You can find this info by clicking on this link from the front of Hurricane City..
Great site... great people, Jim is great.
Go Red Sox, Bobbi Ps... maybe in a day or so something might develop, hard to believe we won't have a swan song...
gonna swim over to wild oats later... in the dirty water lol of Miami Beach but gosh .. I wish.. I was in Boston ;)
October Storm Brewing While Red Sox Win 2nd Game of World Series
Okay, while I was laying awake with my stomach churning, sucking on a chocolate tootsie roll pop trying to make time pass faster so that we would really win the second game of the World Series... people in hurricane land were beginning to go GA GA over the next possible storm that is now only an invest... a dream, a possibility, a tropical disturbance... but alas.. Hurricane People are HUNGRY.. they will take whatever they can get ..
So...here is a pic of the possible storm...
Here is the possible track of the possible storm.. October Storm, never a clear cut track (like an attempt to carve a jack o lantern
Great game last night, one of the all time best World Series games I would think. My father loved tense games.. this was tense, close and a nail biter or lollipop sucker :)
So... wearing the colors.. going to work, simple Shabbos as a few of my kids are on a Shabbatone and the ones left home are eating simply.. or whatever we like the best. Guacamole, Babaganosh and Chummus... Salmon or Fake Crab.. we'll see.
Actually, going to my brother Ronnie's house... he sent me this email this morning with a link to some hurricane site online, so imagine we will be talking Tropics round the Shabbos table:
Oh Yeah Baby!!!!!
Bring it on!!!!
lol besos... Go Sox! My favorite pitcher to watch... just after winning the Game.. as the most incredible closer around ;)
Invest ... Possible Tropical Event Worth Mentioning...
Having problems getting excited here and having problems seeing how this is going to crash into the Yucatan unless... it stays so small that all we ever have to talk about is an Invest.
But..it is there so check it out for yourself: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
Beautiful spin up in the Atlantic with that gigantic Upper Level Low that wants to draw you deep inside and make you lose your mind... well you know how staring at Upper Level Lows is.. like one big blue and yellow lava lamp...
So...here I am in the land of palm trees and sunshine, moisture from the Caribbean is headed this way (unorganized due to unfavorable upper level winds) and the winds in California are dying down a bit allowing fire fighters to get a handle on the fires and allow people back in to see what is left (if anything) of their homes.
The Red Sox blasted off into outer space last night with a 13-1 lead over the other team with interesting black and white Raider like uniforms and a very cute pitcher. He had a hard night. He was cute though then again my youngest daughter still likes Josh Beckett's eyes from when he was a Marlin. The uniform changed but not his eyes ;)
So.... that's my life here as a single and smiling member of the Red Sox Nation. I wanted a bracelet. I STILL want the bracelet!! And, I deserve one ...hard earned too for all the love and attention and inspiration and long nights spent with crazy person watching the Red Sox and they still don't appreciate all the hours spent reading up on how the team formed, who the managers were, books from the library, websites, my gosh I took notes!!!
And, now I love them ..
The RED SOX :P
Looking for someone normal in my life this time around, normal and accepting of my crazy love of weather and the Red Sox!
Love and kisses from sunny Miami.. Bobbi ps.. no writers, artists, directors, actors need apply.. been there, done that... want hard working and normal :) smiling, thanks for the shirts and hats though! But.........gonna wear the pink one I bought myself for the next game ;) Gosh I love that store...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm